Are Analyst Price Targets Accurate? 7 Years of Data
How often Wall Street price targets are reached, how long it takes, and how the promised upside compares with what stocks actually did. From Exent’s backtest of 628,792 analyst ratings.
How often Jonathan Chappell’s price targets were reached, how fast, and what the stocks did after each call: a 7‑year backtest of 1,248 ratings, compared with the average Wall Street analyst.
Jonathan Chappell of Evercore ISI ranks #104 of the 1,000 analysts Exent scores, with a 5.0★ rating and a focus on industrials. Over a 7‑year lookback, 54.4% of Jonathan’s price targets were reached, 2.0 points above the 52.4% average across all analysts.
| Metric | Jonathan Chappell | All analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Price‑target hit rate | 54.4% | 52.4% |
| Median days to hit target | 88 days | 91 days |
| Calls up after 12 months | 60.4% | 64.0% |
| Median 12‑month return of calls | +7.3% | +13.4% |
| Hit rate, last 2 years | 73.1% | — |
| Average worst drop after a call | −15.8% | — |
| Ratings in the sample | 1,248 | — |
| Stocks covered | 33 | — |
| Time to reach the target | Jonathan Chappell |
|---|---|
| Under 30 days | 29.9% |
| 30–90 days | 21.4% |
| 90–180 days | 21.1% |
| Over 180 days | 27.6% |
Share of the targets that were reached, by how long they took. Targets are usually set for 12 months.
| Stock | Ratings in the sample |
|---|---|
| ODFL | 26 |
| XPO | 26 |
| CHRW | 23 |
| CSX | 20 |
| TSX-CP | 19 |
| KNX | 19 |
| STNG | 19 |
| WERN | 18 |
In the past year Jonathan’s ratings were 49% Buy, 47% Hold and 4% Sell.
| Date | Stock | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | FRO | Reiterated: Hold | Hold | $41.00 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | CHRW | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $237.00 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | ODFL | Maintained: Buy | Buy | $243.00 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | KEX | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $158.00 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | TSX-CP | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $140.04 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | KEX | Maintained: Buy | Buy | $158.00 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | TSX-CP | Maintained: Buy | Buy | $138.78 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | ODFL | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $243.00 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | CHRW | Maintained: Buy | Buy | $237.00 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | UPS | Reiterated: Hold | Hold | $118.00 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | UPS | Maintained: Hold | Hold | $118.00 |
| Jul 27, 2026 | TSX-CNR | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $196.64 |
Live ratings from Jonathan Chappell and the other top‑ranked analysts, and the stocks where they agree, are in Exent Stocks Radar.
Exent replays every rating with a price target over a 7‑year lookback: was the target reached, how long it took, and what the stock returned 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after the call. The star rating and rank combine success rate, average return and the number of ratings, so a few lucky calls do not make a top analyst. Statistics as of Jun 24, 2026; ranking updated Oct 19, 2026. How accurate are analyst price targets overall?
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
By Exent’s scoring Jonathan Chappell ranks #104 of 1,000 with a 5.0★ rating. 54.4% of price targets were reached over a 7-year lookback (all analysts: 52.4%), and 60.4% of calls were up 12 months later. Past accuracy does not guarantee future accuracy.
Jonathan Chappell’s success rate is 67.2% by the ranking source and 54.4% by Exent’s price-target hit-rate backtest, with a median of 88 days to reach a target.
Jonathan Chappell (Evercore ISI) covers 33 stocks, mostly in industrials. The most frequently rated are ODFL, XPO, CHRW, CSX, TSX-CP.
Exent tracks 4,000+ analysts, keeps only the elite few with proven records, and surfaces the Gems where they agree.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.