Are Analyst Price Targets Accurate? 7 Years of Data
How often Wall Street price targets are reached, how long it takes, and how the promised upside compares with what stocks actually did. From Exent’s backtest of 628,792 analyst ratings.
How often James Ricchiuti’s price targets were reached, how fast, and what the stocks did after each call: a 7‑year backtest of 1,665 ratings, compared with the average Wall Street analyst.
James Ricchiuti of Needham ranks #135 of the 1,000 analysts Exent scores, with a 5.0★ rating and a focus on technology. Over a 7‑year lookback, 68.3% of James’s price targets were reached, 15.9 points above the 52.4% average across all analysts.
| Metric | James Ricchiuti | All analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Price‑target hit rate | 68.3% | 52.4% |
| Median days to hit target | 81 days | 91 days |
| Calls up after 12 months | 60.6% | 64.0% |
| Median 12‑month return of calls | +13.0% | +13.4% |
| Hit rate, last 2 years | 71.9% | — |
| Average worst drop after a call | −25.9% | — |
| Ratings in the sample | 1,665 | — |
| Stocks covered | 32 | — |
| Time to reach the target | James Ricchiuti |
|---|---|
| Under 30 days | 21.6% |
| 30–90 days | 31.5% |
| 90–180 days | 24.7% |
| Over 180 days | 22.2% |
Share of the targets that were reached, by how long they took. Targets are usually set for 12 months.
| Stock | Ratings in the sample |
|---|---|
| TTMI | 31 |
| CECO | 24 |
| MKSI | 22 |
| PI | 22 |
| LASR | 21 |
| KRNT | 20 |
| AEIS | 18 |
| CLH | 18 |
In the past year James’s ratings were 91% Buy, 9% Hold and 0% Sell.
| Date | Stock | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | ZBRA | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $435.00 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | ELMT | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $25.00 |
| Aug 24, 2026 | NSSC | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $49.00 |
| Aug 18, 2026 | TTMI | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $220.00 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | ELMT | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $21.00 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | SSYS | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $11.50 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | KRNT | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $23.00 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | TDY | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $750.00 |
| Aug 11, 2026 | CECO | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $110.00 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | ONT | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $23.00 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | LASR | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $90.00 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | TTMI | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $220.00 |
Live ratings from James Ricchiuti and the other top‑ranked analysts, and the stocks where they agree, are in Exent Stocks Radar.
Exent replays every rating with a price target over a 7‑year lookback: was the target reached, how long it took, and what the stock returned 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after the call. The star rating and rank combine success rate, average return and the number of ratings, so a few lucky calls do not make a top analyst. Statistics as of Jun 24, 2026; ranking updated Oct 20, 2026. How accurate are analyst price targets overall?
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
By Exent’s scoring James Ricchiuti ranks #135 of 1,000 with a 5.0★ rating. 68.3% of price targets were reached over a 7-year lookback (all analysts: 52.4%), and 60.6% of calls were up 12 months later. Past accuracy does not guarantee future accuracy.
James Ricchiuti’s success rate is 58.3% by the ranking source and 68.3% by Exent’s price-target hit-rate backtest, with a median of 81 days to reach a target.
James Ricchiuti (Needham) covers 32 stocks, mostly in technology. The most frequently rated are TTMI, CECO, MKSI, PI, LASR.
Exent tracks 4,000+ analysts, keeps only the elite few with proven records, and surfaces the Gems where they agree.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.