How often Dan Payne’s price targets were reached, how fast, and what the stocks did after each call: a 7‑year backtest of 6 ratings, compared with the average Wall Street analyst.
Dan Payne of National Bank ranks #26 of the 1,000 analysts Exent scores, with a 5.0★ rating and a focus on energy. Over a 7‑year lookback, 0.0% of Dan’s price targets were reached, 52.4 points below the 52.4% average across all analysts.
| Metric | Dan Payne | All analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Price‑target hit rate | 0.0% | 52.4% |
| Median days to hit target | — | 91 days |
| Calls up after 12 months | 66.7% | 64.0% |
| Median 12‑month return of calls | +109.2% | +13.4% |
| Hit rate, last 2 years | — | — |
| Average worst drop after a call | −36.1% | — |
| Ratings in the sample | 6 | — |
| Stocks covered | 43 | — |
| Time to reach the target | Dan Payne |
|---|---|
| Under 30 days | — |
| 30–90 days | — |
| 90–180 days | — |
| Over 180 days | — |
Share of the targets that were reached, by how long they took. Targets are usually set for 12 months.
| Stock | Ratings in the sample |
|---|---|
| TSX-TVE | 45 |
| TSX-SDE | 35 |
| TSX-BIR | 27 |
| TSX-BTE | 26 |
| TSX-POU | 26 |
| TSX-AAV | 25 |
| TSX-KEL | 24 |
| TSX-CEU | 23 |
In the past year Dan’s ratings were 87% Buy, 13% Hold and 0% Sell.
| Date | Stock | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | TSX-CEU | Upgraded: Buy | Buy | $20.00 |
| Jul 7, 2026 | TSXV-LGN | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $1.75 |
| Jul 7, 2026 | TSXV-LGN | Maintained: Buy | Buy | $1.75 |
| May 12, 2026 | TSX-CEU | Downgraded: Hold | Hold | $20.00 |
| May 12, 2026 | TSX-CEU | Downgraded | Buy → Hold | $20.00 |
| May 7, 2026 | TSX-EFX | Upgraded: Buy | Buy | $42.50 |
| May 7, 2026 | TSX-EFX | Upgraded | Hold → Buy | $42.50 |
| Apr 23, 2026 | TSXV-LCX | Upgraded: Buy | Buy | $3.00 |
| Apr 23, 2026 | TSXV-LCX | Upgraded | Buy | $3.00 |
| Mar 26, 2026 | TSX-LCFS | Reiterated: Hold | Hold | $8.00 |
| Mar 26, 2026 | TSX-LCFS | Maintained: Hold | Hold | $8.00 |
| Mar 26, 2026 | TSX-LCFS | Maintained | Hold | $8.00 |
Live ratings from Dan Payne and the other top‑ranked analysts, and the stocks where they agree, are in Exent Stocks Radar.
Exent replays every rating with a price target over a 7‑year lookback: was the target reached, how long it took, and what the stock returned 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after the call. The star rating and rank combine success rate, average return and the number of ratings, so a few lucky calls do not make a top analyst. Statistics as of Jun 24, 2026; ranking updated Oct 13, 2026. How accurate are analyst price targets overall?
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
By Exent’s scoring Dan Payne ranks #26 of 1,000 with a 5.0★ rating. 0.0% of price targets were reached over a 7-year lookback (all analysts: 52.4%), and 66.7% of calls were up 12 months later. Past accuracy does not guarantee future accuracy.
Dan Payne’s success rate is 69.5% by the ranking source and 0.0% by Exent’s price-target hit-rate backtest, with a median of — days to reach a target.
Dan Payne (National Bank) covers 43 stocks, mostly in energy. The most frequently rated are TSX-TVE, TSX-SDE, TSX-BIR, TSX-BTE, TSX-POU.
Exent tracks 4,000+ analysts, keeps only the elite few with proven records, and surfaces the Gems where they agree.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.