# TOST Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History

> Toast, Inc., technology (market value $17.3 billion): how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Returns to Oct 30, 2026; analyst data as of Nov 9, 2026.

Source: https://www.exent.ai/stocks/tost · Reviewed by David, Senior Analyst, Exent · Published Nov 11, 2026 · Updated Nov 11, 2026

**What changed since Nov 2, 2026:** Buy ratings 71% → 74%

## Key takeaways

- TOST returned −40.5% over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026 versus +75.9% for the S&P 500: it lagged the index.
- Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was −0.02 against 0.58 for the S&P 500.
- Its deepest crisis drawdown was −25.4% in the 2025 tariff selloff (S&P 500: −19.0%).
- Five‑year volatility was 61.6% and beta 1.74.
- 29 analysts rated it in the past year; 74% of their latest calls were Buy.
- TOST beat earnings estimates in 9 of its last 12 reports; the stock moved 9.5% on average, up or down, around each report.

## Did TOST beat the S&P 500?

Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, Toast, Inc. (TOST) returned **−40.5%** including dividends, versus **+75.9%** for the S&P 500 (SPY). It lagged the index by 116.4 percentage points, or −9.9% a year against +12.0%.

| Period | TOST | S&P 500 | TOST per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 year | −12.3% | +12.0% | −12.3% | +12.0% | Lagged |
| 3 years | +98.1% | +87.4% | +25.6% | +23.3% | Beat |
| 5 years | −40.5% | +75.9% | −9.9% | +12.0% | Lagged |

Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also [how to beat the S&P 500](https://www.exent.ai/beat-the-market).

## What Wall Street analysts say about TOST

In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 29 analysts published 245 ratings on TOST. Their latest calls were 74% Buy, 26% Hold and 0% Sell. 5 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.

The consensus 12‑month price target was $38.84 (range $30.00–$45.00), +12.5% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: [how accurate are price targets?](https://www.exent.ai/resources/are-analyst-price-targets-accurate)

| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sanjay Sakhrani](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/sanjay-sakhrani) | [KBW](https://www.exent.ai/firms/kbw) | 5.0★ | 53.0% |
| [David Koning](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/david-koning) | [Robert W. Baird](https://www.exent.ai/firms/robert-w-baird) | 4.9★ | 48.7% |
| [Peter Heckmann](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/peter-heckmann) | [D.A. Davidson](https://www.exent.ai/firms/d-a-davidson) | 4.8★ | 39.8% |
| [Darrin Peller](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/darrin-peller) | [Wolfe Research](https://www.exent.ai/firms/wolfe-research) | 4.7★ | 44.3% |
| [Billy Fitzsimmons](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/billy-fitzsimmons) | [Piper Sandler](https://www.exent.ai/firms/piper-sandler) | 4.6★ | 49.5% |

Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on TOST are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in [Exent Gems](https://www.exent.ai/radar).

The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.1% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. [Unlock the top 50 analysts](https://www.exent.ai/radar).

## TOST returns by year vs the S&P 500

TOST beat the S&P 500 in 1 of the 4 full calendar years shown.

| Year | TOST | S&P 500 | Difference |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026 (to Oct 30, 2026) | −10.8% | +11.7% | −22.5% |
| 2025 | −2.6% | +17.7% | −20.3% |
| 2024 | +99.6% | +24.9% | +74.7% |
| 2023 | +1.3% | +26.2% | −24.9% |
| 2022 | −48.1% | −18.2% | −29.9% |

## TOST risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility

Over 5 years, TOST had a Sharpe ratio of **−0.02** against 0.58 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 52.2% and its beta 1.74: it tended to move about 1.7× as much as the market.

| Metric | TOST | S&P 500 |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Annual return | −9.9% | +12.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 52.2% | 15.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | −0.02 | 0.58 |
| Sortino ratio | −0.03 | 0.91 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −75.7% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 1.74 | 1.00 |

[Sharpe](https://www.exent.ai/learn/sharpe-ratio) divides return above cash by total volatility; [Sortino](https://www.exent.ai/learn/sortino-ratio) counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.

## How TOST behaved in past crashes

TOST’s deepest fall in the crises below was **−25.4%** in the 2025 tariff selloff, against −19.0% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.

| Crisis | TOST | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −25.4% | −19.0% | −$25,410 |

| Window | TOST max drawdown |
| --- | --- |
| Last 1 year | −54.7% |
| Last 3 years | −54.7% |
| Last 5 years | −80.6% |
| Last 10 years | −80.6% |

Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the [crash test](https://www.exent.ai/tools/crash-test).

## What moves with TOST, and what doesn’t

Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, TOST’s correlation with the S&P 500 was **0.52**, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.41, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.16 and with gold (GLD) −0.13.

Adding a 5% TOST position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.5% to 16.2%.

| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | −0.17 |  | 0.62 |
|  | −0.15 |  | 0.61 |
|  | −0.11 |  | 0.60 |
|  | −0.05 |  | 0.57 |
|  | −0.04 |  | 0.56 |

Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See [how to find hidden overlap](https://www.exent.ai/resources/is-my-portfolio-diversified).

## Latest TOST upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes

| Date | Rating and target | Analyst |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Nov 5 | Target raised Hold Target $38, was $34 | [Peter Heckmann](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/peter-heckmann) D.A. Davidson |
| Sep 24 | Target raised Buy Target $47, was $40 | Jason Kupferberg Wells Fargo |

Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on TOST in the 5 weeks to Oct 12, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in [Exent Gems](https://www.exent.ai/radar). [See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/upgrades).

## Do analysts get TOST right?

Of the 341 analyst price targets on TOST set from 2019 until a year ago, **77.4%** were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 8.8 points above the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 52 days. The median target sat 17.2% above the share price on the day it was set.

Where analysts said TOST would be by now: a year ago, 14 analysts had a price target on TOST, and the median of their latest targets was **$48.50**. On Oct 20, 2026 TOST closed at $32.65, 32.7% below it.

- **77.4%** of targets reached within 12 months

- **52 days** median time to reach a target

- **−32.7%** price now vs the median target set a year ago

| After | Calls | Move on the call | 3 months vs S&P 500 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Upgrades of TOST | 15 | +2.0% | +2.2% |
| Upgrades, all stocks | 11,514 | +2.5% | +3.4% |
| Downgrades of TOST | 11 | −5.9% | −3.6% |
| Downgrades, all stocks | 10,700 | −3.0% | −1.6% |

The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on TOST through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. [Do analyst upgrades move stocks?](https://www.exent.ai/resources/do-analyst-upgrades-move-stocks)

## How TOST moves after earnings

TOST beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in **9 of its last 12** quarterly reports, through the one on Aug 4, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 10 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 9.5% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 6 of the 12 reports. In 4 of the 9 beats the stock still fell.

- **9/12** earnings beats

- **±9.5%** average move per report

- **6/12** reports followed by a rise

| Report | EPS vs estimate | Revenue vs estimate | Stock move |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Aug 4, 2026 | $0.34 vs $0.32 | +1.9% | +6.1% |
| May 7, 2026 | $0.29 vs $0.27 | −0.2% | −11.5% |
| Feb 12, 2026 | $0.23 vs $0.24 | +0.9% | −2.5% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $0.25 vs $0.24 | +2.9% | +9.2% |
| Aug 5, 2025 | $0.24 vs $0.23 | +1.6% | −6.8% |
| May 8, 2025 | $0.20 vs $0.18 | −0.5% | +14.8% |
| Feb 19, 2025 | $0.05 vs $0.05 | +1.8% | −3.9% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | $0.07 vs $0.02 | +0.9% | +16.6% |

Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. [How stocks move after earnings](https://www.exent.ai/resources/how-stocks-move-after-earnings)

## Where TOST’s revenue comes from

In fiscal 2025, TOST’s largest segment was Technology Service, with 84.3% of $6.0 billion revenue (+24.3% on the year before).

| Segment | Revenue | Share | Growth |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Technology Service | $5.0 billion | 84.3% | +24.3% |
| License | $936.0 million | 15.7% | +32.6% |

From TOST’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2025 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. [Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?](https://www.exent.ai/resources/sp-500-china-revenue-exposure)

## Members of Congress who traded TOST

As of Oct 20, 2026, **2 members of Congress** had disclosed 2 trades in TOST (2 buys and 0 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Jul 8, 2026.

| Trade date | Member | Type | Amount |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Jul 8, 2026 | [Thomas Kean](https://www.exent.ai/congress/thomas-kean) | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Apr 13, 2026 | [Mark Warner](https://www.exent.ai/congress/mark-warner) | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |

Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. [See every member’s disclosed trades](https://www.exent.ai/congress)

## Are TOST insiders buying or selling?

In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, TOST insiders made **no open‑market purchases** and **52 sales** worth $28.4 million, according to SEC Form 4 filings. The last open‑market purchase on record was on May 15, 2023.

After the 9 insider purchases of $10,000 or more since 2012, TOST lagged the S&P 500 by an average of 16.8 percentage points over the next 12 months; 56% of them were followed by a beat. Across all 17,865 insider purchases in Exent’s study, the average was +17.2% and the median +1.0% against the index.

| Date | Insider | Role | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| May 15, 2023 | Yuan David | Director | $1.6 million |
| May 12, 2023 | Yuan David | Director | $6.1 million |
| Feb 25, 2022 | Bell Paul D | Director | $252,500 |
| Jan 28, 2022 | HMI Capital Management, L.P. | 10 percent owner | $494,338 |
| Jan 27, 2022 | HMI Capital Management, L.P. | 10 percent owner | $414,030 |

The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. [Do insider buys beat the market?](https://www.exent.ai/resources/do-insider-buys-beat-the-market)

## How much of TOST is sold short?

As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, **7.07%** of TOST’s float was sold short: 34.3 million shares, or 3.7 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 5.47%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so TOST is more heavily shorted than most.

From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. [The most shorted stocks](https://www.exent.ai/resources/most-shorted-stocks)

## How many institutions own TOST?

At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), **824 institutions** reported holding TOST in 13F filings, up 20 from the quarter before and up from 810 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 83.4% of TOST’s shares. In the quarter 433 institutions added to their positions and 252 cut them.

- **824** 13F holders

- **131** new positions

- **116** positions closed

- **83.4%** of shares held by 13F filers

Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. [Which stocks institutions are buying and selling](https://www.exent.ai/resources/institutional-ownership-13f-changes)

## Is TOST diluting shareholders?

TOST’s diluted share count rose 2.7% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a smaller slice of the company.

Stock‑based compensation was $242.0 million in fiscal 2025, 3.9% of revenue. TOST spent $107.0 million buying back shares, a buyback yield of 0.52% of its market value; stock pay equaled 226.2% of the buybacks.

- **+2.7%** share count, 1 year

- **3.9%** stock pay as % of revenue

- **0.52%** buyback yield

Weighted‑average diluted shares from TOST’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. [Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained](https://www.exent.ai/resources/stock-dilution-and-stock-based-compensation)

## TOST financial health scores

In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, TOST’s Altman Z‑score was **11.38**, in the safe zone (where 465 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was **6 out of 9**; 62% of scored stocks reach 6 or more.

- **11.38** Altman Z‑score: safe zone

- **6/9** Piotroski F‑score

The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. [Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?](https://www.exent.ai/resources/altman-z-score-bankruptcy-risk-stocks)

## Which ETFs hold TOST?

As of Oct 20, 2026, **34** of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held TOST. Its largest weight is in ARKF (ARK Blockchain & Fintech Innovation ETF), at 4.06% of the fund.

| ETF | Fund | Weight of TOST |
| --- | --- | --- |
| ARKF | ARK Blockchain & Fintech Innovation ETF | 4.06% |
| IJK | iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400 Growth ETF | 0.81% |
| [CLSE](https://www.exent.ai/etfs/clse) | Convergence Long/Short Equity ETF | 0.56% |
| [IJH](https://www.exent.ai/etfs/ijh) | iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF | 0.48% |
| [SPMD](https://www.exent.ai/etfs/spmd) | State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 400 Mid Cap ETF | 0.48% |
| [MDY](https://www.exent.ai/etfs/mdy) | State Street SPDR S&P MIDCAP 400 ETF Trust | 0.47% |
| [IWP](https://www.exent.ai/etfs/iwp) | iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF | 0.45% |
| [VBK](https://www.exent.ai/etfs/vbk) | Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.40% |

Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. [How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?](https://www.exent.ai/resources/etf-overlap-voo-qqq-vti)

## The right benchmark for TOST

Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For TOST that is **QQQ** (the Nasdaq‑100). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read [why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios](https://www.exent.ai/resources/why-the-sp-500-is-the-wrong-benchmark).

## Other technology stocks

| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | Apple Inc. | +135.9% | 28.0% |
|  | NVIDIA Corporation | +704.3% | 51.1% |
|  | Microsoft Corporation | +64.0% | 26.5% |
|  | Broadcom Inc. | +570.0% | 44.7% |
|  | Micron Technology, Inc. | +1,211% | 51.9% |
|  | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | +319.9% | 58.3% |
|  | Palantir Technologies Inc. | +611.4% | 64.4% |
|  | Oracle Corporation | +45.7% | 40.4% |

## Data and methodology

Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: [Exent methodology](https://www.exent.ai/methodology).

Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

## Check TOST with Exent Gems

Wall Street’s average TOST price target is 12.5% above the latest share price. See what the best‑ranked analysts on TOST say now in Exent Gems.

1. Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their past price‑target hit rate and returns, and keeps the best‑ranked few.
2. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts covering TOST are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts.
3. Gems flags the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree: a starting point for your own research, not a promise.

Exent is our product: [Exent Gems](https://www.exent.ai/radar)

Also: [Stress‑test your portfolio with TOST](https://www.exent.ai/portfolio)

## Frequently asked questions

### Did TOST beat the S&P 500 over the last 5 years?

No. TOST returned −40.5% (−9.9% a year) over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, versus +75.9% (+12.0% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.

### Is TOST in the S&P 500?

No. As of Oct 20, 2026, TOST (Toast, Inc.) is not one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500.

### What is TOST’s Sharpe ratio?

Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, TOST’s Sharpe ratio was −0.02 and its Sortino ratio −0.03, versus 0.58 and 0.91 for the S&P 500.

### Is TOST a volatile stock?

TOST’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 61.6%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 1.74.

### What is least correlated with TOST?

Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with TOST over the last 60 months were ABBV (−0.17), PFE (−0.15), NEM (−0.11). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.16 and with gold (GLD) −0.13.

### Does TOST usually beat earnings estimates?

TOST beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 9 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Aug 4, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 10 of 12. The stock moved 9.5% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it.

### Have members of Congress traded TOST?

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 2 members of Congress had disclosed 2 trades in TOST (2 buys and 0 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.

### What is TOST’s short interest?

As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 7.07% of TOST’s float was sold short (34.3 million shares, 3.7 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 5.47%.

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Educational content, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.