# SPCX Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History

> Space Exploration Technologies Corp., industrials (market value $1.77 trillion), a Nasdaq‑100 member: how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Returns to Oct 30, 2026; analyst data as of Nov 9, 2026.

Source: https://www.exent.ai/stocks/spcx · Reviewed by David, Senior Analyst, Exent · Published Nov 9, 2026 · Updated Nov 11, 2026

## Key takeaways

- SPCX has traded only since June 2026, so it has no full 1‑year record against the S&P 500 yet.
- 39 analysts rated it in the past year; 74% of their latest calls were Buy.

## Did SPCX beat the S&P 500?

There is not yet enough price history to compare SPCX with the S&P 500 over full periods.

SPCX is in the [Nasdaq‑100](https://www.exent.ai/stocks/nasdaq-100) (members as of Oct 20, 2026); the list shows every member’s return against the index.

## What Wall Street analysts say about SPCX

In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 39 analysts published 162 ratings on SPCX. Their latest calls were 74% Buy, 18% Hold and 8% Sell. 17 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.

The consensus 12‑month price target was $224.89 (range $75.00–$450.00), +57.2% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: [how accurate are price targets?](https://www.exent.ai/resources/are-analyst-price-targets-accurate)

| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Members only | Members only | 4.9★ | 64.3% |
| Members only | Members only | 4.9★ | 50.5% |
| Members only | Members only | 4.9★ | 62.7% |
| [Ryan Koontz](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/ryan-koontz) | [Needham](https://www.exent.ai/firms/needham) | 4.9★ | 53.6% |
| Members only | Members only | 4.9★ | 57.9% |

Other analysts covering SPCX: [Myles Walton](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/myles-walton) · [Glenn Thum](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/glenn-thum) · [Colin Canfield](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/colin-canfield)

Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on SPCX are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in [Exent Gems](https://www.exent.ai/radar).

The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.1% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. [Unlock the top 50 analysts](https://www.exent.ai/radar).

## How SPCX behaved in past crashes

SPCX began trading in June 2026, after the crises this page replays (2008 to 2025) and has less than a year of prices, so it has no drawdown history yet.

## Latest SPCX upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes

| Date | Rating and target | Analyst |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Oct 23 | Upgrade Buy Target $250 | [Glenn Thum](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/glenn-thum) Phillip Securities |
| Oct 22 | Upgrade Sell → Buy Target $250, was $75 | [Glenn Thum](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/glenn-thum) Phillip Securities |
| Oct 21 | Target raised Buy Target $224, was $200 | [John Blackledge](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/john-blackledge) TD Cowen |
| Oct 21 | Target raised Buy Target $245, was $230 | [Eric Sheridan](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/eric-sheridan) Goldman Sachs |
| Oct 20 | Target raised Buy Target $205, was $200 | [Brett Linzey](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/brett-linzey) Mizuho Securities |
| Oct 20 | Target raised Buy Target $345, was $246 | [Colin Canfield](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/colin-canfield) Cantor Fitzgerald |
| Oct 12 | Target raised Buy Target $230, was $220 | Jeffrey Wlodarczak Pivotal Research |
| Oct 8 | New coverage Hold | Stephan Lingnau Erste Group |
| Oct 8 | New coverage Buy Target $254 | Anthony Valentini Barclays |
| Oct 7 | New coverage Buy Target $225, was $190 | [Daniel Ives](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/daniel-ives) Yorkville Ives & Co |
| Oct 5 | Target raised Buy Target $230, was $220 | [Eric Sheridan](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/eric-sheridan) Goldman Sachs |
| Oct 2 | New coverage Buy Target $200 | [John Blackledge](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/john-blackledge) TD Cowen |

Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on SPCX in the 5 weeks to Oct 12, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in [Exent Gems](https://www.exent.ai/radar). [See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/upgrades).

## The right benchmark for SPCX

Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For SPCX that is **SPY** (the S&P 500). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read [why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios](https://www.exent.ai/resources/why-the-sp-500-is-the-wrong-benchmark).

## Other industrials stocks

| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | GE Aerospace | +374.0% | 31.1% |
|  | RTX Corporation | +150.3% | 23.8% |
|  | Caterpillar Inc. | +231.6% | 32.4% |
|  | GE Vernova Inc. | — | — |
|  | Union Pacific Corporation | +41.0% | 22.6% |
|  | Deere & Company | +110.6% | 29.6% |
|  | Lockheed Martin Corporation | +119.1% | 23.0% |
|  | The Boeing Company | −17.1% | 37.0% |

## Data and methodology

Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: [Exent methodology](https://www.exent.ai/methodology).

Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

## Check SPCX with Exent Gems

Wall Street’s average SPCX price target is 57.2% above the latest share price. See what the best‑ranked analysts on SPCX say now in Exent Gems.

1. Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their past price‑target hit rate and returns, and keeps the best‑ranked few.
2. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts covering SPCX are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts.
3. Gems flags the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree: a starting point for your own research, not a promise.

Exent is our product: [Exent Gems](https://www.exent.ai/radar)

Also: [Stress‑test your portfolio with SPCX](https://www.exent.ai/portfolio)

## Frequently asked questions

### Is SPCX in the S&P 500?

No. As of Oct 20, 2026, SPCX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) is not one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500. It is in the Nasdaq-100.

### Is SPCX in the Nasdaq-100?

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, SPCX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) is one of the 101 stocks in the Nasdaq-100.

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Educational content, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.