# MTG Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History

> MGIC Investment Corporation, financial services (market value $5.9 billion): how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Returns to Oct 30, 2026; analyst data as of Nov 9, 2026.

Source: https://www.exent.ai/stocks/mtg · Reviewed by David, Senior Analyst, Exent · Published Oct 26, 2026 · Updated Nov 11, 2026

**What changed since Nov 2, 2026:** 1 new rating · 4★+ analysts covering 4 → 5

## Key takeaways

- MTG returned +97.7% over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026 versus +75.9% for the S&P 500: it beat the index.
- Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.55 against 0.58 for the S&P 500.
- Its deepest crisis drawdown was −96.5% in the global financial crisis (2007–09) (S&P 500: −56.5%).
- Five‑year volatility was 25.4% and beta 0.64.
- 6 analysts rated it in the past year; 17% of their latest calls were Buy.

## Did MTG beat the S&P 500?

Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) returned **+97.7%** including dividends, versus **+75.9%** for the S&P 500 (SPY). It beat the index by 21.8 percentage points, or +14.6% a year against +12.0%.

| Period | MTG | S&P 500 | MTG per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 year | +5.9% | +12.0% | +5.9% | +12.0% | Lagged |
| 3 years | +80.3% | +87.4% | +21.7% | +23.3% | Lagged |
| 5 years | +97.7% | +75.9% | +14.6% | +12.0% | Beat |
| 10 years | +311.1% | +316.3% | +15.2% | +15.3% | Lagged |

Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also [how to beat the S&P 500](https://www.exent.ai/beat-the-market).

## What Wall Street analysts say about MTG

In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 6 analysts published 49 ratings on MTG. Their latest calls were 17% Buy, 67% Hold and 17% Sell. 5 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.

The consensus 12‑month price target was $31.50 (range $28.00–$35.00), +11.8% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: [how accurate are price targets?](https://www.exent.ai/resources/are-analyst-price-targets-accurate)

| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Members only | Members only | 4.9★ | 34.1% |
| [Harry Fong](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/harry-fong) | [Roth MKM](https://www.exent.ai/firms/roth-mkm) | 4.9★ | 39.6% |
| [Douglas Harter](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/douglas-harter) | BTIG | 4.8★ | 30.8% |
| [Mihir Bhatia](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/mihir-bhatia) | [Bank of America Securities](https://www.exent.ai/firms/bank-of-america-securities) | 4.7★ | 67.1% |
| [Rowland Mayor](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/rowland-mayor) | [RBC Capital](https://www.exent.ai/firms/rbc-capital) | 4.5★ | 56.6% |

Other analysts covering MTG: [Randy Binner](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/randy-binner)

Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on MTG are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in [Exent Gems](https://www.exent.ai/radar).

The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.1% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. [Unlock the top 50 analysts](https://www.exent.ai/radar).

## MTG returns by year vs the S&P 500

MTG beat the S&P 500 in 6 of the 9 full calendar years shown.

| Year | MTG | S&P 500 | Difference |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026 (to Oct 30, 2026) | −1.1% | +11.7% | −12.8% |
| 2025 | +25.8% | +17.7% | +8.1% |
| 2024 | +25.7% | +24.9% | +0.8% |
| 2023 | +52.4% | +26.2% | +26.2% |
| 2022 | −7.5% | −18.2% | +10.7% |
| 2021 | +17.1% | +28.7% | −11.6% |
| 2020 | −9.1% | +18.3% | −27.4% |
| 2019 | +36.7% | +31.2% | +5.5% |
| 2018 | −25.9% | −4.6% | −21.3% |
| 2017 | +38.5% | +21.7% | +16.8% |

## MTG risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility

Over 5 years, MTG had a Sharpe ratio of **0.55** against 0.58 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 23.3% and its beta 0.64: it tended to move about 0.6× as much as the market.

| Metric | MTG | S&P 500 |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Annual return | +14.6% | +12.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 23.3% | 15.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.83 | 0.91 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −20.7% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 0.64 | 1.00 |

[Sharpe](https://www.exent.ai/learn/sharpe-ratio) divides return above cash by total volatility; [Sortino](https://www.exent.ai/learn/sortino-ratio) counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.

## How MTG behaved in past crashes

MTG’s deepest fall in the crises below was **−96.5%** in the global financial crisis (2007–09), against −56.5% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.

| Crisis | MTG | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Global financial crisis (2007–09) | −96.5% | −56.5% | −$96,480 |
| 2018 trade-war selloff | −29.3% | −20.2% | −$29,300 |
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | −60.6% | −34.1% | −$60,610 |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −30.9% | −25.4% | −$30,870 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −12.2% | −19.0% | −$12,210 |

| Window | MTG max drawdown |
| --- | --- |
| Last 1 year | −14.6% |
| Last 3 years | −14.6% |
| Last 5 years | −30.0% |
| Last 10 years | −68.6% |

Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the [crash test](https://www.exent.ai/tools/crash-test).

## What moves with MTG, and what doesn’t

Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, MTG’s correlation with the S&P 500 was **0.42**, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.22, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.41 and with gold (GLD) 0.05.

Adding a 5% MTG position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.5% to 15.2%.

| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | −0.10 |  | 0.68 |
|  | −0.07 |  | 0.64 |
|  | −0.07 |  | 0.64 |
|  | −0.05 |  | 0.63 |
|  | −0.04 |  | 0.63 |

Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See [how to find hidden overlap](https://www.exent.ai/resources/is-my-portfolio-diversified).

## Latest MTG upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes

| Date | Rating and target | Analyst |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Oct 5 | Target raised Hold Target $29, was $28 | Terry Ma Barclays |
| Sep 28 | New coverage Hold | [Douglas Harter](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/douglas-harter) BTIG |
| Sep 25 | New coverage Hold | [Douglas Harter](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/douglas-harter) BTIG |

Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on MTG in the 5 weeks to Oct 12, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in [Exent Gems](https://www.exent.ai/radar). [See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/upgrades).

## The right benchmark for MTG

Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For MTG that is **MDY**. Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read [why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios](https://www.exent.ai/resources/why-the-sp-500-is-the-wrong-benchmark).

## Other financial services stocks

| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | Berkshire Hathaway Inc. | +89.0% | 17.2% |
|  | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | +124.6% | 24.4% |
|  | Visa Inc. | +102.8% | 22.7% |
|  | Mastercard Incorporated | +95.9% | 23.9% |
|  | Bank of America Corporation | +18.3% | 26.6% |
|  | Morgan Stanley | +110.1% | 28.6% |
|  | The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. | +144.3% | 28.6% |
|  | Wells Fargo & Company | +84.1% | 30.1% |

## Data and methodology

Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: [Exent methodology](https://www.exent.ai/methodology).

Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

## Check MTG with Exent Gems

Wall Street’s average MTG price target is 11.8% above the latest share price. See what the best‑ranked analysts on MTG say now in Exent Gems.

1. Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their past price‑target hit rate and returns, and keeps the best‑ranked few.
2. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts covering MTG are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts.
3. Gems flags the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree: a starting point for your own research, not a promise.

Exent is our product: [Exent Gems](https://www.exent.ai/radar)

Also: [Stress‑test your portfolio with MTG](https://www.exent.ai/portfolio)

## Frequently asked questions

### Did MTG beat the S&P 500 over the last 10 years?

No. MTG returned +311.1% (+15.2% a year) over the 10 years to Oct 30, 2026, versus +316.3% (+15.3% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.

### Is MTG in the S&P 500?

No. As of Oct 20, 2026, MTG (MGIC Investment Corporation) is not one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500.

### How much did MTG fall in the 2008 crash?

MTG fell −96.5% from peak to trough during the global financial crisis (2007–09), versus −56.5% for the S&P 500.

### How much did MTG fall in the COVID crash?

MTG fell −60.6% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.

### How much did MTG fall in the 2022 bear market?

MTG fell −30.9% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.

### What is MTG’s Sharpe ratio?

Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, MTG’s Sharpe ratio was 0.55 and its Sortino ratio 0.83, versus 0.58 and 0.91 for the S&P 500.

### Is MTG a volatile stock?

MTG’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 25.4%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 0.64.

### What is least correlated with MTG?

Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with MTG over the last 60 months were DELL (−0.10), CRWD (−0.07), PFE (−0.07). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.41 and with gold (GLD) 0.05.

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Educational content, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.