# DOW Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History

> Dow Inc., basic materials (market value $23.1 billion), an S&P 500 member: how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Returns to Oct 30, 2026; analyst data as of Nov 9, 2026.

Source: https://www.exent.ai/stocks/dow · Reviewed by David, Senior Analyst, Exent · Published Nov 6, 2026 · Updated Nov 11, 2026

**What changed since Nov 2, 2026:** 3 new ratings · 1 analyst started coverage · Buy ratings 44% → 35% · analysts covering 20 → 21 · 4★+ analysts covering 2 → 3

## Key takeaways

- DOW returned −18.5% over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026 versus +75.9% for the S&P 500: it lagged the index.
- Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was −0.05 against 0.58 for the S&P 500.
- Its deepest crisis drawdown was −54.9% in the covid crash (feb–mar 2020) (S&P 500: −34.1%).
- Five‑year volatility was 34.1% and beta 0.41.
- 21 analysts rated it in the past year; 35% of their latest calls were Buy.
- DOW beat earnings estimates in 9 of its last 12 reports; the stock moved 4.4% on average, up or down, around each report.

## Did DOW beat the S&P 500?

Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, Dow Inc. (DOW) returned **−18.5%** including dividends, versus **+75.9%** for the S&P 500 (SPY). It lagged the index by 94.4 percentage points, or −4.0% a year against +12.0%.

| Period | DOW | S&P 500 | DOW per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 year | +52.7% | +12.0% | +52.7% | +12.0% | Beat |
| 3 years | −14.7% | +87.4% | −5.2% | +23.3% | Lagged |
| 5 years | −18.5% | +75.9% | −4.0% | +12.0% | Lagged |

Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also [how to beat the S&P 500](https://www.exent.ai/beat-the-market).

DOW is in the [S&P 500](https://www.exent.ai/stocks/sp-500) (members as of Oct 20, 2026); the list shows every member’s return against the index.

## What Wall Street analysts say about DOW

In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 21 analysts published 220 ratings on DOW. Their latest calls were 35% Buy, 50% Hold and 15% Sell. 3 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.

The consensus 12‑month price target was $34.60 (range $30.00–$45.00), +9.9% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: [how accurate are price targets?](https://www.exent.ai/resources/are-analyst-price-targets-accurate)

| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [John Roberts CFA](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/john-roberts-cfa) | [Mizuho Securities](https://www.exent.ai/firms/mizuho-securities) | 4.8★ | 53.8% |
| [Duffy Fischer](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/duffy-fischer) | [Goldman Sachs](https://www.exent.ai/firms/goldman-sachs) | 4.6★ | 53.7% |
| [Aleksey Yefremov](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/aleksey-yefremov) | [Barclays](https://www.exent.ai/firms/barclays) | 4.4★ | 40.8% |

Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on DOW are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in [Exent Gems](https://www.exent.ai/radar).

The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.1% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. [Unlock the top 50 analysts](https://www.exent.ai/radar).

## DOW returns by year vs the S&P 500

DOW beat the S&P 500 in 1 of the 6 full calendar years shown.

| Year | DOW | S&P 500 | Difference |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026 (to Oct 30, 2026) | +53.5% | +11.7% | +41.8% |
| 2025 | −37.4% | +17.7% | −55.1% |
| 2024 | −22.8% | +24.9% | −47.7% |
| 2023 | +14.7% | +26.2% | −11.5% |
| 2022 | −6.6% | −18.2% | +11.6% |
| 2021 | +6.8% | +28.7% | −21.9% |
| 2020 | +7.9% | +18.3% | −10.4% |

## DOW risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility

Over 5 years, DOW had a Sharpe ratio of **−0.05** against 0.58 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 35.0% and its beta 0.41: it tended to move about 0.4× as much as the market.

| Metric | DOW | S&P 500 |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Annual return | −4.0% | +12.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 35.0% | 15.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | −0.05 | 0.58 |
| Sortino ratio | −0.08 | 0.91 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −59.2% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 0.41 | 1.00 |

[Sharpe](https://www.exent.ai/learn/sharpe-ratio) divides return above cash by total volatility; [Sortino](https://www.exent.ai/learn/sortino-ratio) counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.

## How DOW behaved in past crashes

DOW’s deepest fall in the crises below was **−54.9%** in the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), against −34.1% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.

| Crisis | DOW | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | −54.9% | −34.1% | −$54,880 |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −38.5% | −25.4% | −$38,550 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −34.8% | −19.0% | −$34,810 |

| Window | DOW max drawdown |
| --- | --- |
| Last 1 year | −34.8% |
| Last 3 years | −62.2% |
| Last 5 years | −64.4% |
| Last 10 years | −70.9% |

Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the [crash test](https://www.exent.ai/tools/crash-test).

## What moves with DOW, and what doesn’t

Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, DOW’s correlation with the S&P 500 was **0.18**, with the Nasdaq‑100 −0.01, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.25 and with gold (GLD) 0.07.

Adding a 5% DOW position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.5% to 15.1%.

| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | −0.28 |  | 0.62 |
|  | −0.28 |  | 0.61 |
|  | −0.24 |  | 0.60 |
|  | −0.22 |  | 0.56 |
|  | −0.18 |  | 0.54 |

Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See [how to find hidden overlap](https://www.exent.ai/resources/is-my-portfolio-diversified).

## Latest DOW upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes

| Date | Rating and target | Analyst |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Oct 23 | Target raised Hold Target $33, was $32 | [John Roberts CFA](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/john-roberts-cfa) Mizuho Securities |
| Oct 12 | Target cut Hold Target $31, was $34 | [Duffy Fischer](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/duffy-fischer) Goldman Sachs |
| Oct 12 | New coverage Sell Target $30 | Michael Leithead Barclays |
| Oct 12 | New coverage Sell Target $30, was $38 | [Aleksey Yefremov](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/aleksey-yefremov) Barclays |
| Oct 1 | Downgrade Hold Target $30 | Patrick Cunningham Citi |
| Sep 30 | Downgrade Buy → Hold Target $30, was $35 | Patrick Cunningham Citi |
| Sep 30 | Target cut Hold Target $32, was $35 | [John Roberts CFA](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/john-roberts-cfa) Mizuho Securities |
| Sep 29 | Target cut Hold Target $29, was $32 | Arun Viswanathan RBC Capital |
| Sep 25 | Target cut Hold Target $30, was $32 | Joshua Spector UBS |
| Sep 17 | Target cut Hold Target $32, was $40 | David Begleiter Deutsche Bank |
| Sep 11 | New coverage Hold | Salvator Tiano KeyBanc |

Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on DOW in the 5 weeks to Oct 12, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in [Exent Gems](https://www.exent.ai/radar). [See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/upgrades).

## Do analysts get DOW right?

Of the 479 analyst price targets on DOW set from 2019 until a year ago, **58.2%** were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 10.4 points below the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 35 days. The median target sat 9.7% above the share price on the day it was set.

Where analysts said DOW would be by now: a year ago, 11 analysts had a price target on DOW, and the median of their latest targets was **$26.00**. On Oct 20, 2026 DOW closed at $30.70, 18.1% above it.

- **58.2%** of targets reached within 12 months

- **35 days** median time to reach a target

- **+18.1%** price now vs the median target set a year ago

| After | Calls | Move on the call | 3 months vs S&P 500 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Upgrades of DOW | 31 | +1.3% | −5.0% |
| Upgrades, all stocks | 11,514 | +2.5% | +3.4% |
| Downgrades of DOW | 31 | −2.5% | −7.3% |
| Downgrades, all stocks | 10,700 | −3.0% | −1.6% |

The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on DOW through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. [Do analyst upgrades move stocks?](https://www.exent.ai/resources/do-analyst-upgrades-move-stocks)

## How DOW moves after earnings

DOW beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in **9 of its last 12** quarterly reports, through the one on Jul 23, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 7 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 4.4% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 4 of the 12 reports. In 5 of the 9 beats the stock still fell.

- **9/12** earnings beats

- **±4.4%** average move per report

- **4/12** reports followed by a rise

| Report | EPS vs estimate | Revenue vs estimate | Stock move |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Jul 23, 2026 | $1.44 vs $1.28 | +0.5% | −4.5% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | −$0.14 vs −$0.29 | +1.4% | −0.4% |
| Jan 29, 2026 | −$0.34 vs −$0.46 | −0.0% | −0.8% |
| Oct 23, 2025 | −$0.19 vs −$0.31 | −2.4% | +14.4% |
| Jul 24, 2025 | −$0.42 vs −$0.17 | −1.4% | −16.0% |
| Apr 24, 2025 | $0.02 vs −$0.01 | +1.9% | +3.5% |
| Jan 30, 2025 | −$0.08 vs $0.35 | −1.0% | −4.9% |
| Oct 24, 2024 | $0.47 vs $0.46 | +2.1% | −3.5% |

Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. [How stocks move after earnings](https://www.exent.ai/resources/how-stocks-move-after-earnings)

## Where DOW’s revenue comes from

In fiscal 2025 (the year to Dec 31, 2025), DOW’s largest reported region was U.S.& Canada, with 39.5% of its $40.0 billion revenue. By region: U.S.& Canada 39.5%; Europe, Middle East, Africa and India [Domain] 31.5%; Asia Pacific 18.1%; Latin America 10.9%.

By business, the largest segment was Packaging & Specialty Plastics, with 50.9% of $39.3 billion revenue (−8.3% on the year before).

| Segment | Revenue | Share | Growth |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Packaging & Specialty Plastics | $20.0 billion | 50.9% | −8.3% |
| Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure | $11.2 billion | 28.4% | −5.9% |
| Performance Materials & Coatings | $8.1 billion | 20.7% | −5.1% |

From DOW’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2025 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. [Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?](https://www.exent.ai/resources/sp-500-china-revenue-exposure)

## Members of Congress who traded DOW

As of Oct 20, 2026, **24 members of Congress** had disclosed 79 trades in DOW (38 buys and 39 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Mar 27, 2026.

| Trade date | Member | Type | Amount |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Mar 27, 2026 | [Alan Armstrong](https://www.exent.ai/congress/alan-armstrong) | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jan 29, 2026 | [Ro Khanna](https://www.exent.ai/congress/ro-khanna) | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Nov 18, 2025 | [Gilbert Cisneros](https://www.exent.ai/congress/gilbert-cisneros) | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Aug 26, 2025 | [Ro Khanna](https://www.exent.ai/congress/ro-khanna) | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jun 24, 2025 | [Lisa McClain](https://www.exent.ai/congress/lisa-mcclain) | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| May 15, 2025 | [Rob Bresnahan](https://www.exent.ai/congress/rob-bresnahan) | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Apr 29, 2025 | [Gilbert Cisneros](https://www.exent.ai/congress/gilbert-cisneros) | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Apr 10, 2025 | [Michael McCaul](https://www.exent.ai/congress/michael-mccaul) | Sale | $100,001–$250,000 |
| Jan 15, 2025 | [Julie Johnson](https://www.exent.ai/congress/julie-johnson) | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Sep 9, 2024 | [Ro Khanna](https://www.exent.ai/congress/ro-khanna) | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |

Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. [See every member’s disclosed trades](https://www.exent.ai/congress)

One trade in DOW disclosed in the last 30 days is in Exent Radar.

## Are DOW insiders buying or selling?

In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, DOW insiders made **no open‑market purchases** and **no sales**, according to SEC Form 4 filings. The last open‑market purchase on record was on Feb 7, 2025.

After the 23 insider purchases of $10,000 or more since 2012, DOW beat the S&P 500 by an average of 4.1 percentage points over the next 12 months; 44% of them were followed by a beat. Across all 17,865 insider purchases in Exent’s study, the average was +17.2% and the median +1.0% against the index.

| Date | Insider | Role | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Feb 7, 2025 | Dial Debra L. | Director | $26,197 |
| Dec 13, 2024 | Banister Gaurdie E. JR. | Director | $299,932 |
| Dec 12, 2024 | Fitterling James R | Director, officer: Chair and CEO | $589,574 |
| Dec 12, 2024 | Davis Richard K | Director | $249,730 |
| Nov 16, 2023 | Davis Richard K | Director | $255,437 |

The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. [Do insider buys beat the market?](https://www.exent.ai/resources/do-insider-buys-beat-the-market)

## How much of DOW is sold short?

As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, **4.73%** of DOW’s float was sold short: 34.1 million shares, or 3.6 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 4.18%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so DOW is less heavily shorted than most.

From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. [The most shorted stocks](https://www.exent.ai/resources/most-shorted-stocks)

## How many institutions own DOW?

At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), **1,269 institutions** reported holding DOW in 13F filings, down 117 from the quarter before and down from 1,292 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 80.6% of DOW’s shares. In the quarter 540 institutions added to their positions and 468 cut them.

- **1,269** 13F holders

- **140** new positions

- **256** positions closed

- **80.6%** of shares held by 13F filers

Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. [Which stocks institutions are buying and selling](https://www.exent.ai/resources/institutional-ownership-13f-changes)

## Is DOW diluting shareholders?

DOW’s diluted share count **fell 4.1%** over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and rose 0.9% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a larger slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.

DOW did not buy back shares in fiscal 2025.

- **+0.9%** share count, 1 year

- **−4.1%** share count, 5 years

- **0.0%** stock pay as % of revenue

- **0.00%** buyback yield

Weighted‑average diluted shares from DOW’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. [Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained](https://www.exent.ai/resources/stock-dilution-and-stock-based-compensation)

## DOW financial health scores

In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, DOW’s Altman Z‑score was **1.79**, in the distress zone (where 180 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was **4 out of 9**; 88% of scored stocks reach 4 or more.

- **1.79** Altman Z‑score: distress zone

- **4/9** Piotroski F‑score

The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. [Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?](https://www.exent.ai/resources/altman-z-score-bankruptcy-risk-stocks)

## What DOW talks about on earnings calls

On its latest earnings call (Jul 23, 2026), DOW’s executives and analysts did not mention AI, against 0 on the call before (Apr 23, 2026); the average across 455 S&P 500 calls that quarter was 12.9. After AI, the most mentioned topic was data centers (10). Tariffs and recession did not come up.

| Mentions | Jul ’26 | Apr ’26 | Jan ’26 | Oct ’25 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| AI | 0 | 0 | 14 | 2 |
| AI agents | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Data centers | 10 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Tariffs | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| China | 5 | 3 | 6 | 24 |
| Recession | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Word counts in the full transcript of each call, prepared remarks and Q&A, newest first. “AI” also counts generative AI and large language models; “AI agents” counts agentic AI. [Which companies talk most about AI?](https://www.exent.ai/resources/ai-mentions-on-earnings-calls)

## Which ETFs hold DOW?

As of Oct 20, 2026, **46** of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held DOW. Its largest weight is in XLB (State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF), at 3.38% of the fund.

| ETF | Fund | Weight of DOW |
| --- | --- | --- |
| XLB | State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF | 3.38% |
| [FNDX](https://www.exent.ai/etfs/fndx) | Schwab Fundamental U.S. Large Company Index ETF | 0.24% |
| [VBR](https://www.exent.ai/etfs/vbr) | Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.23% |
| [IWS](https://www.exent.ai/etfs/iws) | iShares Russell Mid-Cap Value ETF | 0.21% |
| PRF | Invesco FTSE RAFI US 1000 ETF | 0.21% |
| [RSP](https://www.exent.ai/etfs/rsp) | Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF | 0.21% |
| [VOE](https://www.exent.ai/etfs/voe) | Vanguard Mid-Cap Value Index Fund | 0.17% |
| [IWR](https://www.exent.ai/etfs/iwr) | iShares Russell Mid-Cap ETF | 0.16% |

Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. [How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?](https://www.exent.ai/resources/etf-overlap-voo-qqq-vti)

## How much is DOW’s CEO paid?

Jim Fitterling, DOW’s Chair and Chief Executive Officer, received total pay of **$19.1 million** for fiscal 2025, up 0.1% from $19.1 million for fiscal 2024, according to the company’s [proxy statement](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1751788/000119312526082583/0001193125-26-082583-index.htm) filed with the SEC on Feb 27, 2026. 78% of it came as stock and option awards, valued when they were granted rather than when they pay out. The median CEO pay across the 378 S&P 500 companies Exent tracks was $17.2 million.

| Pay component | Amount | Share of total |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Salary | $1.7 million | 8.9% |
| Stock and option awards | $14.9 million | 78.0% |
| Incentive plan (cash) | $533,988 | 2.8% |
| Other | $2.0 million | 10.3% |

| Other top executives | Role | Total pay, 2025 |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Karen S. Carter | Chief Operating Officer | $7.2 million |
| Jeffrey L. Tate | Chief Financial Officer | $6.1 million |
| Amy E. Wilson | General Counsel and Corporate Secretary | $4.9 million |
| A. N. Sreeram | Senior Vice President, Research & Development and Chief Technology Officer | $4.7 million |

Figures from the summary compensation table of the proxy statement; awards count at their grant‑date value, so one large multi‑year grant can make a single year stand out. [CEO pay across the S&P 500](https://www.exent.ai/resources/ceo-pay-sp-500)

## The right benchmark for DOW

Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For DOW that is **SPY** (the S&P 500). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read [why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios](https://www.exent.ai/resources/why-the-sp-500-is-the-wrong-benchmark).

## Other basic materials stocks

| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | Southern Copper Corporation | +298.2% | 39.3% |
|  | Newmont Corporation | +126.5% | 37.8% |
|  | Freeport-McMoRan Inc. | +77.5% | 45.1% |
|  | Ecolab Inc. | +44.2% | 24.1% |
|  | The Sherwin-Williams Company | +9.9% | 26.1% |
|  | Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. | +19.8% | 26.6% |
|  | Nucor Corporation | +163.8% | 37.7% |
|  | AngloGold Ashanti plc | +394.7% | 50.1% |

## Data and methodology

Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: [Exent methodology](https://www.exent.ai/methodology).

Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

## Check DOW with Exent Gems

Wall Street’s average DOW price target is 9.9% above the latest share price. See what the best‑ranked analysts on DOW say now in Exent Gems.

1. Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their past price‑target hit rate and returns, and keeps the best‑ranked few.
2. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts covering DOW are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts.
3. Gems flags the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree: a starting point for your own research, not a promise.

Exent is our product: [Exent Gems](https://www.exent.ai/radar)

Also: [Stress‑test your portfolio with DOW](https://www.exent.ai/portfolio)

## Frequently asked questions

### Did DOW beat the S&P 500 over the last 5 years?

No. DOW returned −18.5% (−4.0% a year) over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, versus +75.9% (+12.0% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.

### Is DOW in the S&P 500?

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, DOW (Dow Inc.) is one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500.

### How much did DOW fall in the COVID crash?

DOW fell −54.9% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.

### How much did DOW fall in the 2022 bear market?

DOW fell −38.5% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.

### What is DOW’s Sharpe ratio?

Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, DOW’s Sharpe ratio was −0.05 and its Sortino ratio −0.08, versus 0.58 and 0.91 for the S&P 500.

### Is DOW a volatile stock?

DOW’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 34.1%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 0.41.

### What is least correlated with DOW?

Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with DOW over the last 60 months were SNOW (−0.28), CRWD (−0.28), FTNT (−0.24). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.25 and with gold (GLD) 0.07.

### Does DOW usually beat earnings estimates?

DOW beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 9 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Jul 23, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 7 of 12. The stock moved 4.4% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it.

### How much does DOW’s CEO make?

Jim Fitterling, DOW’s Chair and Chief Executive Officer, received $19.1 million in total pay for fiscal 2025, including a $1.7 million salary and $14.9 million in stock and option awards valued at grant, according to the proxy statement filed with the SEC on Feb 27, 2026. The median S&P 500 CEO received $17.2 million.

### Have members of Congress traded DOW?

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 24 members of Congress had disclosed 79 trades in DOW (38 buys and 39 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.

### What is DOW’s short interest?

As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 4.73% of DOW’s float was sold short (34.1 million shares, 3.6 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 4.18%.

### Is DOW diluting shareholders?

No. DOW’s diluted share count fell 4.1% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and rose 0.9% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 0.0% of revenue.

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Educational content, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.