# ATI Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History

> ATI Inc., industrials (market value $24.8 billion): how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Returns to Oct 30, 2026; analyst data as of Nov 9, 2026.

Source: https://www.exent.ai/stocks/ati · Reviewed by David, Senior Analyst, Exent · Published Nov 4, 2026 · Updated Nov 7, 2026

## Key takeaways

- ATI returned +928.5% over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026 versus +75.9% for the S&P 500: it beat the index.
- Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 1.13 against 0.58 for the S&P 500.
- Its deepest crisis drawdown was −86.8% in the global financial crisis (2007–09) (S&P 500: −56.5%).
- Five‑year volatility was 42.9% and beta 1.08.
- 9 analysts rated it in the past year; 100% of their latest calls were Buy.
- ATI beat earnings estimates in 11 of its last 12 reports; the stock moved 11.3% on average, up or down, around each report.

## Did ATI beat the S&P 500?

Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, ATI Inc. (ATI) returned **+928.5%** including dividends, versus **+75.9%** for the S&P 500 (SPY). It beat the index by 852.6 percentage points, or +59.4% a year against +12.0%.

| Period | ATI | S&P 500 | ATI per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 year | +67.3% | +12.0% | +67.3% | +12.0% | Beat |
| 3 years | +338.4% | +87.4% | +63.7% | +23.3% | Beat |
| 5 years | +928.5% | +75.9% | +59.4% | +12.0% | Beat |
| 10 years | +1,114% | +316.3% | +28.4% | +15.3% | Beat |

Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also [how to beat the S&P 500](https://www.exent.ai/beat-the-market).

## What Wall Street analysts say about ATI

In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 9 analysts published 77 ratings on ATI. Their latest calls were 100% Buy, 0% Hold and 0% Sell. 7 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.

The consensus 12‑month price target was $257.50 (range $228.00–$275.00), +40.9% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: [how accurate are price targets?](https://www.exent.ai/resources/are-analyst-price-targets-accurate)

| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Members only | Members only | 5.0★ | 70.8% |
| Members only | Members only | 4.9★ | 57.9% |
| [Seth Seifman](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/seth-seifman) | [J.P. Morgan](https://www.exent.ai/firms/j-p-morgan) | 4.8★ | 67.7% |
| [Scott Deuschle](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/scott-deuschle) | [Deutsche Bank ](https://www.exent.ai/firms/deutsche-bank) | 4.8★ | 72.2% |
| [David E. Strauss](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/david-e.-strauss) | [Wells Fargo](https://www.exent.ai/firms/wells-fargo) | 4.8★ | 68.7% |

Other analysts covering ATI: [Andre Madrid](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/andre-madrid)

Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on ATI are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in [Exent Gems](https://www.exent.ai/radar).

The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.1% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. [Unlock the top 50 analysts](https://www.exent.ai/radar).

## ATI returns by year vs the S&P 500

ATI beat the S&P 500 in 4 of the 9 full calendar years shown.

| Year | ATI | S&P 500 | Difference |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026 (to Oct 30, 2026) | +44.3% | +11.7% | +32.6% |
| 2025 | +108.5% | +17.7% | +90.8% |
| 2024 | +21.0% | +24.9% | −3.9% |
| 2023 | +52.3% | +26.2% | +26.1% |
| 2022 | +87.4% | −18.2% | +105.6% |
| 2021 | −5.0% | +28.7% | −33.7% |
| 2020 | −18.8% | +18.3% | −37.1% |
| 2019 | −5.1% | +31.2% | −36.3% |
| 2018 | −9.8% | −4.6% | −5.2% |
| 2017 | +51.5% | +21.7% | +29.8% |

## ATI risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility

Over 5 years, ATI had a Sharpe ratio of **1.13** against 0.58 for the S&P 500, so it earned more return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 48.1% and its beta 1.08: it tended to move about 1.1× as much as the market.

| Metric | ATI | S&P 500 |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Annual return | +59.4% | +12.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 48.1% | 15.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.13 | 0.58 |
| Sortino ratio | 2.52 | 0.91 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −23.2% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 1.08 | 1.00 |

[Sharpe](https://www.exent.ai/learn/sharpe-ratio) divides return above cash by total volatility; [Sortino](https://www.exent.ai/learn/sortino-ratio) counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.

## How ATI behaved in past crashes

ATI’s deepest fall in the crises below was **−86.8%** in the global financial crisis (2007–09), against −56.5% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.

| Crisis | ATI | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Global financial crisis (2007–09) | −86.8% | −56.5% | −$86,800 |
| 2018 trade-war selloff | −28.7% | −20.2% | −$28,710 |
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | −74.4% | −34.1% | −$74,380 |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −30.9% | −25.4% | −$30,890 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −31.7% | −19.0% | −$31,670 |

| Window | ATI max drawdown |
| --- | --- |
| Last 1 year | −32.3% |
| Last 3 years | −38.0% |
| Last 5 years | −38.0% |
| Last 10 years | −82.4% |

Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the [crash test](https://www.exent.ai/tools/crash-test).

## What moves with ATI, and what doesn’t

Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, ATI’s correlation with the S&P 500 was **0.35**, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.27, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.19 and with gold (GLD) 0.16.

Adding a 5% ATI position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.5% to 15.7%.

| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | −0.18 |  | 0.67 |
|  | −0.15 |  | 0.58 |
|  | −0.08 |  | 0.54 |
|  | −0.07 |  | 0.53 |
|  | −0.05 |  | 0.50 |

Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See [how to find hidden overlap](https://www.exent.ai/resources/is-my-portfolio-diversified).

## Latest ATI upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes

| Date | Rating and target | Analyst |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Oct 30 | Target raised Buy Target $250, was $180 | [Andre Madrid](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/andre-madrid) BTIG |
| Oct 8 | Target cut Buy Target $228, was $258 | Samuel McKinney KeyBanc |
| Sep 30 | Target cut Buy Target $240, was $275 | [David E. Strauss](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/david-e.-strauss) Wells Fargo |

Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on ATI in the 5 weeks to Oct 12, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in [Exent Gems](https://www.exent.ai/radar). [See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades](https://www.exent.ai/analysts/upgrades).

## Do analysts get ATI right?

Of the 138 analyst price targets on ATI set from 2019 until a year ago, **77.5%** were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 8.9 points above the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 110 days. The median target sat 23.9% above the share price on the day it was set.

Where analysts said ATI would be by now: a year ago, 4 analysts had a price target on ATI, and the median of their latest targets was **$120.00**. On Oct 20, 2026 ATI closed at $182.98, 52.5% above it.

- **77.5%** of targets reached within 12 months

- **110 days** median time to reach a target

- **+52.5%** price now vs the median target set a year ago

| After | Calls | Move on the call | 3 months vs S&P 500 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Upgrades of ATI | 7 | +5.4% | +16.6% |
| Upgrades, all stocks | 11,514 | +2.5% | +3.4% |
| Downgrades of ATI | 5 | −10.3% | −13.6% |
| Downgrades, all stocks | 10,700 | −3.0% | −1.6% |

The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on ATI through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. [Do analyst upgrades move stocks?](https://www.exent.ai/resources/do-analyst-upgrades-move-stocks)

## How ATI moves after earnings

ATI beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in **11 of its last 12** quarterly reports, through the one on Aug 6, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 7 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 11.3% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 8 of the 12 reports. In 3 of the 11 beats the stock still fell.

- **11/12** earnings beats

- **±11.3%** average move per report

- **8/12** reports followed by a rise

| Report | EPS vs estimate | Revenue vs estimate | Stock move |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Aug 6, 2026 | $1.23 vs $1.03 | +3.7% | +11.1% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | $1.00 vs $0.88 | −3.0% | +6.2% |
| Feb 3, 2026 | $0.93 vs $0.89 | −0.8% | +4.7% |
| Oct 28, 2025 | $0.85 vs $0.73 | +0.2% | +12.3% |
| Jul 31, 2025 | $0.74 vs $0.72 | −0.2% | −18.6% |
| May 1, 2025 | $0.72 vs $0.58 | +0.2% | +22.4% |
| Feb 4, 2025 | $0.79 vs $0.60 | +10.2% | +13.6% |
| Oct 29, 2024 | $0.60 vs $0.66 | −5.3% | −14.3% |

Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. [How stocks move after earnings](https://www.exent.ai/resources/how-stocks-move-after-earnings)

## Where ATI’s revenue comes from

In fiscal 2025 (the year to Dec 28, 2025), **7.1%** of ATI’s $4.6 billion revenue came from China, up from 6.9% in fiscal 2024. By region: United States 57.5%; Rest Of World 15.3%; China 7.1%; United Kingdom 6.0%.

By business, the largest segment was High Performance Materials & Components, with 53.2% of $5.0 billion revenue (+5.5% on the year before).

| Segment | Revenue | Share | Growth |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| High Performance Materials & Components | $2.7 billion | 53.2% | +5.5% |
| Advanced Alloys & Solutions | $2.3 billion | 46.8% | −0.5% |

From ATI’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2025 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. [Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?](https://www.exent.ai/resources/sp-500-china-revenue-exposure)

## Are ATI insiders buying or selling?

In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, ATI insiders made **no open‑market purchases** and **57 sales** worth $82.6 million, according to SEC Form 4 filings. The last open‑market purchase on record was on Dec 10, 2020.

After the 17 insider purchases of $10,000 or more since 2012, ATI lagged the S&P 500 by an average of 12.5 percentage points over the next 12 months; 29% of them were followed by a beat. Across all 17,865 insider purchases in Exent’s study, the average was +17.2% and the median +1.0% against the index.

| Date | Insider | Role | Value |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Dec 10, 2020 | Newman Donald P | SVP and CFO | $210,365 |
| Mar 16, 2020 | Kah Marianne | Director | $17,820 |
| Mar 16, 2020 | Wetherbee Robert S | President and CEO | $21,759 |
| Aug 14, 2019 | Powers Elizabeth C | Senior VP, CHRO | $36,340 |
| Aug 14, 2019 | Kramer Kevin B | Sr. VP, CCMO | $44,208 |

The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. [Do insider buys beat the market?](https://www.exent.ai/resources/do-insider-buys-beat-the-market)

## How much of ATI is sold short?

As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, **3.51%** of ATI’s float was sold short: 4.7 million shares, or 2.8 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 2.56%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so ATI is less heavily shorted than most.

From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. [The most shorted stocks](https://www.exent.ai/resources/most-shorted-stocks)

## How many institutions own ATI?

At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), **832 institutions** reported holding ATI in 13F filings, up 120 from the quarter before and up from 497 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 95.2% of ATI’s shares. In the quarter 487 institutions added to their positions and 223 cut them.

- **832** 13F holders

- **180** new positions

- **60** positions closed

- **95.2%** of shares held by 13F filers

Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. [Which stocks institutions are buying and selling](https://www.exent.ai/resources/institutional-ownership-13f-changes)

## Is ATI diluting shareholders?

ATI’s diluted share count **rose 12.1%** over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and fell 3.4% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a smaller slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.

Stock‑based compensation was $29.0 million in fiscal 2025, 0.6% of revenue. ATI spent $504.1 million buying back shares, a buyback yield of 1.93% of its market value; stock pay equaled 5.8% of the buybacks.

- **−3.4%** share count, 1 year

- **+12.1%** share count, 5 years

- **0.6%** stock pay as % of revenue

- **1.93%** buyback yield

Weighted‑average diluted shares from ATI’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. [Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained](https://www.exent.ai/resources/stock-dilution-and-stock-based-compensation)

## ATI financial health scores

In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, ATI’s Altman Z‑score was **5.93**, in the safe zone (where 465 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was **7 out of 9**; 40% of scored stocks reach 7 or more.

- **5.93** Altman Z‑score: safe zone

- **7/9** Piotroski F‑score

The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. [Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?](https://www.exent.ai/resources/altman-z-score-bankruptcy-risk-stocks)

## Which ETFs hold ATI?

As of Oct 20, 2026, **39** of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held ATI. Its largest weight is in XAR (State Street SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF), at 2.86% of the fund.

| ETF | Fund | Weight of ATI |
| --- | --- | --- |
| XAR | State Street SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF | 2.86% |
| ITA | iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF | 1.94% |
| PAVE | Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF | 1.55% |
| PPA | Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF | 1.48% |
| IJK | iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400 Growth ETF | 1.28% |
| [IJH](https://www.exent.ai/etfs/ijh) | iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF | 0.77% |
| [IWP](https://www.exent.ai/etfs/iwp) | iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF | 0.76% |
| [SPMD](https://www.exent.ai/etfs/spmd) | State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 400 Mid Cap ETF | 0.76% |

Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. [How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?](https://www.exent.ai/resources/etf-overlap-voo-qqq-vti)

## The right benchmark for ATI

Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For ATI that is **SPY** (the S&P 500). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read [why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios](https://www.exent.ai/resources/why-the-sp-500-is-the-wrong-benchmark).

## Other industrials stocks

| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
|  | Space Exploration Technologies Corp. | — | — |
|  | GE Aerospace | +374.0% | 31.1% |
|  | RTX Corporation | +150.3% | 23.8% |
|  | Caterpillar Inc. | +231.6% | 32.4% |
|  | GE Vernova Inc. | — | — |
|  | Union Pacific Corporation | +41.0% | 22.6% |
|  | Deere & Company | +110.6% | 29.6% |
|  | Lockheed Martin Corporation | +119.1% | 23.0% |

## Data and methodology

Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: [Exent methodology](https://www.exent.ai/methodology).

Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

## Check ATI with Exent Gems

Wall Street’s average ATI price target is 40.9% above the latest share price. See what the best‑ranked analysts on ATI say now in Exent Gems.

1. Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their past price‑target hit rate and returns, and keeps the best‑ranked few.
2. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts covering ATI are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts.
3. Gems flags the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree: a starting point for your own research, not a promise.

Exent is our product: [Exent Gems](https://www.exent.ai/radar)

Also: [Stress‑test your portfolio with ATI](https://www.exent.ai/portfolio)

## Frequently asked questions

### Did ATI beat the S&P 500 over the last 10 years?

Yes. ATI returned +1,114% (+28.4% a year) over the 10 years to Oct 30, 2026, versus +316.3% (+15.3% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.

### Is ATI in the S&P 500?

No. As of Oct 20, 2026, ATI (ATI Inc.) is not one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500.

### How much did ATI fall in the 2008 crash?

ATI fell −86.8% from peak to trough during the global financial crisis (2007–09), versus −56.5% for the S&P 500.

### How much did ATI fall in the COVID crash?

ATI fell −74.4% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.

### How much did ATI fall in the 2022 bear market?

ATI fell −30.9% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.

### What is ATI’s Sharpe ratio?

Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, ATI’s Sharpe ratio was 1.13 and its Sortino ratio 2.52, versus 0.58 and 0.91 for the S&P 500.

### Is ATI a volatile stock?

ATI’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 42.9%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 1.08.

### What is least correlated with ATI?

Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with ATI over the last 60 months were PFE (−0.18), LLY (−0.15), GILD (−0.08). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.19 and with gold (GLD) 0.16.

### Does ATI usually beat earnings estimates?

ATI beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 11 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Aug 6, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 7 of 12. The stock moved 11.3% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it.

### How much of ATI’s revenue comes from China?

In fiscal 2025 (the year to Dec 28, 2025), 7.1% of ATI’s $4.6 billion revenue came from China, about $325.7 million, up from 6.9% in fiscal 2024. Regions are as ATI reports them in its annual filings.

### What is ATI’s short interest?

As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 3.51% of ATI’s float was sold short (4.7 million shares, 2.8 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 2.56%.

### Is ATI diluting shareholders?

Yes. ATI’s diluted share count rose 12.1% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and fell 3.4% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 0.6% of revenue, and buybacks totaled $504.1 million.

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Educational content, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.