# Why Neocloud Stocks Fell in October 2026: Prices, Dates, Causes

> CoreWeave, Nebius, IREN and the bitcoin-miners-turned-landlords lost roughly 18% to 50% of their value in three weeks while the S&P 500 barely moved, and most fell further by November 5, when the whole market dropped. Here are the dated closing prices, what is documented about why, and which popular explanations are still only explanations.

Source: https://www.exent.ai/resources/neocloud-selloff-october-2026 · Reviewed by David, Senior Analyst, Exent · Published Nov 6, 2026 · Updated Nov 11, 2026

## Key takeaways

- From September 30 to October 23, 2026 (closing prices, Exent market data) CoreWeave fell 37.7%, Nebius 32.7% and IREN 39.1%; the landlords fell 18.0% (Core Scientific) to 49.8% (Cipher Digital). Over the same days SPY fell 0.3%, QQQ 4.8% and NVIDIA 7.6%. By the November 5 close CoreWeave was down a further 19.5%, Nebius 24.2% and IREN 27.6%, while SPY fell 3.5%.
- Documented: the selloff centered on CoreWeave’s credit. An investor’s chart reported by CNBC showed its 2032 notes closing at a new high yield on October 13; the stock fell 15.5% on October 14, the morning of a hot CPI report and a Gartner forecast about neoclouds; on October 15 its 2031 notes yielded 15.78% and its five-year CDS was about 1,038 basis points (CNBC).
- Proposed, not proven: “rising rates”. The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.75% to 5.29% between August 31 and September 30, but fell to 5.00% by October 23 while the stocks fell. Rates explain the backdrop better than the October timing.
- None of the October company statements and filings cited here, nor the eight Q3 earnings releases out by November 10, reported a lost customer or a missed payment. Most of the landlords were already 30%–51% below their 12-month highs on September 30, so October extended a fall that, for most of them, began in May or June.
- CoreWeave reported Q3 after the November 10 close: revenue $3.66 billion (+168%), backlog about $132.5 billion, and $846 million of net interest against $207 million of operating income. TeraWulf (+12.8% on Nov 6) and IREN (+20.0%) have also reported; Nebius reports November 12. Nothing here predicts what happens next.

## How far did neocloud stocks fall in October 2026?

Roughly 18% to 50% of their value in about three weeks, if you hold one of the listed GPU clouds or the bitcoin miners now leasing data centers to them. The market as a whole did not fall: the S&P 500 ETF ended October 23 within 0.3% of its September 30 close. So this was a sector selloff, not a market crash. The data below are Exent market data, daily closing prices, with October 23, 2026 as the last session of the October window (prices in this table and chart; the rest of the page reuses them). What happened next, to the November 5 close, is in [the section below](#since-the-window).

Scope: US-listed neoclouds (GPU clouds) and the data-center landlords grouped with them, as defined in [what is a neocloud](https://www.exent.ai/resources/what-is-a-neocloud), compared with NVIDIA, Oracle and broad index funds. Excluded: private neoclouds and intraday prices. This page records what happened and why it may have happened; it does not say whether to buy, sell or hold any of these stocks.

| Stock | Close Sep 30 | Close Oct 23 | Change | Highest close since Sep 30 | Fall from that close | 12-month closing high | Fall from 12-month high |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [CoreWeave (CRWV)](https://www.exent.ai/stocks/crwv) | $87.12 | $54.24 | −37.7% | $91.72 (Oct 6) | −40.9% | $139.93 (Oct 29, 2025) | −61.2% |
| [Nebius (NBIS)](https://www.exent.ai/stocks/nbis) | $235.88 | $158.74 | −32.7% | $249.87 (Oct 6) | −36.5% | $286.69 (Jun 18, 2026) | −44.6% |
| IREN (IREN) | $40.88 | $24.91 | −39.1% | $41.76 (Oct 2) | −40.3% | $76.41 (Nov 5, 2025) | −67.4% |
| Cipher Digital (CIFR) | $15.83 | $7.94 | −49.8% | $15.83 (Sep 30) | −49.8% | $29.18 (Jun 18, 2026) | −72.8% |
| Riot Platforms (RIOT) | $20.15 | $12.53 | −37.8% | $20.15 (Sep 30) | −37.8% | $28.69 (Jun 23, 2026) | −56.3% |
| Galaxy (GLXY) | $22.74 | $14.68 | −35.4% | $23.06 (Oct 2) | −36.3% | $40.55 (Oct 27, 2025) | −63.8% |
| Hut 8 (HUT) | $86.10 | $61.23 | −28.9% | $92.22 (Oct 6) | −33.6% | $133.02 (Jun 2, 2026) | −54.0% |
| Applied Digital (APLD) | $24.37 | $18.25 | −25.1% | $25.38 (Oct 2) | −28.1% | $49.65 (May 28, 2026) | −63.2% |
| TeraWulf (WULF) | $14.80 | $11.32 | −23.5% | $15.49 (Oct 2) | −26.9% | $28.98 (Jun 18, 2026) | −60.9% |
| Core Scientific (CORZ) | $15.98 | $13.10 | −18.0% | $16.68 (Oct 6) | −21.5% | $29.16 (Jun 18, 2026) | −55.1% |
| [Oracle (ORCL), for contrast](https://www.exent.ai/stocks/orcl) | $137.30 | $126.16 | −8.1% | $144.77 (Oct 6) | −12.9% | $283.33 (Oct 24, 2025) | −55.5% |
| [NVIDIA (NVDA)](https://www.exent.ai/stocks/nvda) | $228.38 | $210.96 | −7.6% | $239.24 (Oct 6) | −11.8% | $239.24 (Oct 6, 2026) | −11.8% |
| [Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ)](https://www.exent.ai/etfs/qqq) | $739.77 | $704.40 | −4.8% | $759.66 (Oct 6) | −7.3% | $759.66 (Oct 6, 2026) | −7.3% |
| [S&P 500 ETF (SPY)](https://www.exent.ai/etfs/spy) | $762.63 | $759.97 | −0.3% | $779.09 (Oct 6) | −2.5% | $779.09 (Oct 6, 2026) | −2.5% |

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Change from the September 30 close to the October 23 close. Averaged with equal weights, the three GPU clouds fell 36.5% and the seven landlords 31.2%. IREN and Core Scientific have no stock page in our dataset.

## What happened after the October window? (October 23 to November 5)

Most of the group fell further, and this time the market fell too. From the October 23 close to the November 5 close CoreWeave lost 19.5%, Nebius 24.2% and IREN 27.6%, against 3.5% for SPY and 8.1% for QQQ. Riot, up 17.8%, was the only stock in the table that rose. So the “sector selloff, not a market crash” description fits the October window; it does not fit November 5.

That day was a very large market drop: the S&P 500 fell 4.36%, its worst day since April 4, 2025, and the Nasdaq-100 fell 6.36%, its worst since March 16, 2020. The path was not a straight line. Most of these stocks rose through October 28, their highest close of this stretch, then fell; November 5 was the lowest close of the stretch for every stock here except Riot.

| Stock | Close Oct 23 | Close Nov 5 | Change since Oct 23 | Nov 5 alone | Sep 30 to Nov 5 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [CoreWeave (CRWV)](https://www.exent.ai/stocks/crwv) | $54.24 | $43.66 | −19.5% | −9.8% | −49.9% |
| [Nebius (NBIS)](https://www.exent.ai/stocks/nbis) | $158.74 | $120.37 | −24.2% | −14.9% | −49.0% |
| IREN (IREN) | $24.91 | $18.03 | −27.6% | −17.0% | −55.9% |
| Cipher Digital (CIFR) | $7.94 | $5.55 | −30.1% | −14.6% | −64.9% |
| Riot Platforms (RIOT) | $12.53 | $14.76 | +17.8% | −4.0% | −26.7% |
| Galaxy (GLXY) | $14.68 | $12.98 | −11.6% | −7.1% | −42.9% |
| Hut 8 (HUT) | $61.23 | $45.95 | −25.0% | −6.1% | −46.6% |
| Applied Digital (APLD) | $18.25 | $14.17 | −22.4% | −14.7% | −41.9% |
| TeraWulf (WULF) | $11.32 | $10.08 | −11.0% | −13.8% | −31.9% |
| Core Scientific (CORZ) | $13.10 | $11.38 | −13.1% | −10.8% | −28.8% |
| [Oracle (ORCL)](https://www.exent.ai/stocks/orcl) | $126.16 | $115.06 | −8.8% | −7.0% | −16.2% |
| [NVIDIA (NVDA)](https://www.exent.ai/stocks/nvda) | $210.96 | $181.60 | −13.9% | −9.3% | −20.5% |
| [Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ)](https://www.exent.ai/etfs/qqq) | $704.40 | $647.05 | −8.1% | −6.5% | −12.5% |
| [S&P 500 ETF (SPY)](https://www.exent.ai/etfs/spy) | $759.97 | $733.00 | −3.5% | −4.4% | −3.9% |

Closing prices, Exent market data. Averaged with equal weights, the three GPU clouds fell 23.8% since October 23 and the seven landlords 13.6%, Riot included. Measured from September 30, $10,000 in CoreWeave was worth about $5,011 on November 5 and needed a 99.5% gain to get back; the same $10,000 in SPY was worth about $9,611.

What the press said, which is attribution and not proof: CNBC reported that voters sided against data centers in 40 of 41 local ballot measures on November 3, and that Baird analysts called the results a “sentiment headwind” for neoclouds, which CNBC said “got whacked” on November 4 with CoreWeave down about 10%, on a day the S&P 500 rose. On November 5 CNBC tied the fall to concern that the AI buildout could slow, plus a weak forecast from Qualcomm. None of the company filings we read gives a cause for these share price moves.

## Q3 2026 results so far: how did CoreWeave, TeraWulf and IREN report?

As of November 11, 2026, eight of the group have reported the quarter to September 30; Nebius has not. CoreWeave reported after the close on November 10: revenue of $3.66 billion, up 168% from $1.37 billion a year earlier and up $1.09 billion from the June quarter, with a revenue backlog of about $132.5 billion against about $104 billion at June 30. TeraWulf reported before the open on November 6 and IREN after the close on November 5. Nebius has scheduled its results for November 12, before the open. Applied Digital’s fiscal year is different: its latest report, on October 7, covers the quarter to August 31.

| Company | Reported (2026) | Revenue, quarter to Sep 30 | vs a year earlier | Backlog (company’s own measure) | Capex guide | Stock, first session after the report |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CoreWeave | Nov 10, after the close | $3,661M | +168% | ~$132.5B revenue backlog (Jun 30: ~$104B) | $37B–$39B for 2026 (was $35B–$39B) | Pending: Nov 11 not closed at this update ($48.73 on Nov 10, −0.5%, before the release) |
| TeraWulf | Nov 6, before the open | $76.2M | +51% | ~$27B contracted revenue | No total guide; build cost $8M–$10M per MW of IT capacity | +12.8% on Nov 6 (SPY +0.3%) |
| IREN | Nov 5, after the close | $228M (fiscal Q1 2027) | −5% | $20.3B revenue backlog | $15B of planned fiscal 2027 capex still to spend from Sep 30 | +20.0% on Nov 6 |
| Nebius | Scheduled Nov 12, before the open | not yet reported | — | — | — | — |

Company releases and filings, unaudited; stock moves are closing prices from the same data as the tables above. “Backlog” is each company’s own definition (CoreWeave and IREN add estimated amounts under committed contracts to their performance obligations; TeraWulf’s figure is contracted lease revenue from its investor presentation), so the column is not comparable across rows; see [backlog, RPO and ARR explained](https://www.exent.ai/resources/backlog-rpo-arr-explained).

CoreWeave on the measure this page watches most, interest against operating income: operating income turned positive at $207 million, from a $49 million loss in the June quarter, but net interest expense was $846 million, about four times as much, and the company guided fourth-quarter interest expense to $1.05–1.15 billion. Net loss was $709 million. It spent $9.44 billion on property and equipment in the quarter, raised about $4.2 billion of convertible notes and set up an at-the-market program for up to 35 million shares. It also raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $13.0–13.3 billion. TeraWulf’s HPC lease revenue was $63.0 million, about 83% of the total; its operating loss was $88.2 million against $53.6 million of interest expense, and its $709.9 million net income came mainly from a non-cash change in the value of its warrants.

| Company | Reported | Quarter | Revenue | Operating income (loss) | Interest expense | Read with care |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Galaxy | Oct 27 | Q3 2026, to Sep 30 | $8,688M | $409M (computed) | $93M | Revenue includes gains and sits against $8,016M of transaction expenses; data-center leasing was $79M |
| Cipher Digital | Nov 2 | Q3 2026, to Sep 30 | $26.7M | ($71.9M) | $59.0M | First HPC lease revenue; net income of $31.6M came from a $127.2M warrant gain |
| Riot Platforms | Nov 4 | Q3 2026, to Sep 30 | $181.4M | $1.2M | $2.7M | Data-center revenue $18.4M; new 15-year, 910 MW lease of about $28B |
| Hut 8 | Nov 4 | Q3 2026, to Sep 30 | $71.1M | $318.2M | $105.5M | Operating income includes $413.8M of digital-asset gains, mostly unrealized |
| Core Scientific | Nov 5 | Q3 2026, to Sep 30 | $232.9M | $72.4M | $35.0M (net) | Net income of $1.18B came mainly from a non-cash warrant gain |
| IREN | Nov 5, after the close | Fiscal Q1 2027, to Sep 30 | $228M | ($186M) | $73M (finance expense) | Debt and finance leases $10.2B vs $7.8B at June 30; backlog $20.3B |
| Applied Digital | Oct 7 | Fiscal Q1 2027, to Aug 31 | $341.9M | ($62.4M) | $77.4M | Reported before the October falls; the next quarter runs to Nov 30 |
| TeraWulf | Nov 6, before the open | Q3 2026, to Sep 30 | $76.2M | ($88.2M) | $53.6M | Net income of $709.9M came mainly from a non-cash warrant gain |
| CoreWeave | Nov 10, after the close | Q3 2026, to Sep 30 | $3,661M | $207M | $846M (net) | Net loss $709M; adjusted operating income $379M |
| Nebius | Nov 12, before the open | Q3 2026, to Sep 30 | not yet reported | not yet reported | not yet reported | Date confirmed by the company |

What the reports show on the three things this page watches. Interest against operating income: at CoreWeave, TeraWulf, Cipher, Riot, Hut 8 (before its digital-asset gains), IREN and Applied Digital, operating income did not cover interest in these quarters, while Core Scientific’s $72.4 million exceeded its $35.0 million of net interest. Financing: Hut 8 closed a $1.07 billion revolving facility, Galaxy completed a $3.5 billion senior secured notes offering, and on November 4 Google agreed to backstop certain of Anthropic’s lease obligations to TeraWulf. Delivered capacity: IREN says Microsoft requested a network design change across its Horizon deployments, and that delivery dates, fees and credits are under discussion (10-Q); Core Scientific was billing for 485 MW at September 30, up from 395 MW at June 30.

Results did not move these stocks in one direction. On the first session after their reports Galaxy rose 9.6% (Oct 27), Riot rose 9.6% and Hut 8 fell 23.2% (both Nov 4), Core Scientific fell 10.8% on a day the whole market dropped (Nov 5), and IREN rose 20.0% and TeraWulf 12.8% (both Nov 6, SPY +0.3%). CoreWeave’s first session after its report, November 11, had not closed when this page was updated. These are dates and closes, not causes. We found no lost customer or missed payment in the eight Q3 releases.

## What does a 38% drop mean in dollars, and what does it take to get back?

A drop in percent hides how much harder the way back is. Worked example with CoreWeave’s closing prices, reproducible from the table above:

| Step | Arithmetic | Result |
| --- | --- | --- |
| October change | 54.24 ÷ 87.12 − 1 | −37.7% |
| $10,000 held on Sep 30 was worth on Oct 23 | 10,000 × 54.24 ÷ 87.12 | $6,226 |
| Gain needed to return to the Sep 30 close | 87.12 ÷ 54.24 − 1 | +60.6% |
| Gain needed to return to the 12-month closing high | 139.93 ÷ 54.24 − 1 | +158.0% |
| Same $10,000 in SPY over the same days | 10,000 × 759.97 ÷ 762.63 | $9,965 |

The asymmetry is general: a 50% fall needs a 100% gain to recover (see [loss recovery math](https://www.exent.ai/learn/loss-recovery-math)). It is why the size of a position in stocks this volatile matters more than the choice between them, a point covered in [the risks of investing in neoclouds](https://www.exent.ai/resources/investing-in-neoclouds-risks).

## What happened, day by day? (documented)

The documented sequence centers on the bond market, not on a company filing. Every row is either a closing price from the table above or an event with a primary source or a named news report; the columns do not claim that the event caused the move.

| Date (2026) | Event (source) | CoreWeave close | Group |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Oct 6 | Highest close of the month for CoreWeave, Nebius, Hut 8, NVIDIA and the index funds | $91.72 | October highs |
| Oct 8 | Shares fall across the group; no company statement found. After the US close, Australian AI data-center operator Firmus withdraws its planned IPO, citing market volatility (company statement to CNBC) | $81.58 (−7.8%) | Nebius −7.4%, IREN −7.7% |
| Oct 13 | Cipher Digital files an 8-K presentation for $850M of convertible notes and a lease amendment that moves two data halls’ rent start into early 2027. Late that day an investor posts a chart of CoreWeave’s 2032 notes at a 15% yield (CNBC) | $77.81 (−3.1%) | Cipher −12.8% |
| Oct 14 | BLS: September CPI +0.6% for the month, 3.7% over 12 months (8:30 am ET). Gartner: over 80% of neocloud providers will “cease independent operations” by 2030. CoreWeave’s CEO tells staff the market “misunderstands” (memo reported by CNBC) | $65.78 (−15.5%) | Nebius −10.1%, IREN −12.2%, Oracle −8.8% |
| Oct 15 | CoreWeave 9.75% notes due 2031 at a 15.78% yield; five-year CDS about 1,038 bp after trading above 1,140 (CNBC) | $69.69 (+5.9%) | Mixed |
| Oct 16 | Second large down day; no new company filing found | $61.39 (−11.9%) | Nebius −12.2%, IREN −11.2% |
| Oct 19 | 9.625% notes due 2032 at 14.9%; CDS about 1,082 bp (CNBC) | $61.12 (−0.4%) | Mixed |
| Oct 21 | CDS at 1,145 bp (CNBC). In Australia, NextDC shares fall 40% after it cuts its forecast over a power delay (CNBC) | $61.82 (−0.5%) | Applied Digital +8.5% |
| Oct 22 | Nebius announces a $3.5B 364-day senior secured facility from Citi. NVIDIA’s CEO calls neocloud demand “off the charts” but says capital is scarce (CNBC). CoreWeave’s CEO memo lists its funding sources, including the flexibility to raise equity (CNBC) | $55.60 (−10.1%) | Nebius −7.2%, TeraWulf −11.3% |
| Oct 23 | Last close in the October window | $54.24 (−2.4%) | October lows for most names |
| Oct 25–26 | Elon Musk posts that “200+ neoclouds” face “death and consolidation” (his SpaceX sells computing capacity, so it competes with them). CNBC reports Nebius and CoreWeave down about 4% and IREN 3.2% in Monday trading | after the window | reported, intraday |

The bond-market levels behind these dates, and how to read a 15% yield or a 1,000-point CDS spread without turning it into a default probability, are in [CoreWeave’s debt explained](https://www.exent.ai/resources/coreweave-debt-explained). Gartner’s wording matters: “cease independent operations” includes being acquired, so it is not a forecast that 80% go bankrupt.

## What is documented about why they fell?

Three things are on the record. First, the cost of credit for this group rose sharply and in public: CoreWeave’s unsecured bonds fell to prices that imply yields near 15–16%, with a new closing high on October 13 according to an investor’s chart reported by CNBC, and protection against its default became more expensive through October 21. Second, financing news dominated company statements: a withdrawn IPO (Firmus), a convertible offering (Cipher), a 364-day bank facility (Nebius) and two CEO memos about funding (CoreWeave). Third, demand statements did not change: NVIDIA’s CEO, Nebius’s chief revenue officer and IREN’s co-CEO all told CNBC that customer demand was intact.

What is not on the record: none of these companies announced a cancelled contract, a missed debt payment or a covenant breach in October in the filings and releases cited here. During the October window the latest filed financials were those for the quarter to June 30 (Applied Digital: to August 31), which are unaudited quarterly figures. CoreWeave, for example, reported $640 million of net interest expense against a $49 million operating loss in that quarter and $10.6 billion of principal due by the end of 2027 (10-Q). Those numbers were known in August; what changed in October was the price investors demanded to finance them. Its third-quarter report on November 10 showed the same gap at a larger size: $846 million of net interest against $207 million of operating income.

| Documented item | Date | Type | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CoreWeave 2031 notes yield 15.78%; five-year CDS ~1,038 bp | Oct 15, 2026 | Market price, reported | CNBC |
| CoreWeave five-year CDS 1,145 bp | Oct 21, 2026 | Market price, reported | CNBC |
| September CPI +0.6% m/m, +3.7% y/y; core +2.6% y/y | Oct 14, 2026 | Official statistic | BLS |
| Gartner: >80% of neocloud providers to cease independent operations by 2030 | Oct 14, 2026 | Research-firm forecast | Gartner |
| Firmus withdraws IPO, citing market volatility | Oct 8, 2026 | Company statement | CNBC |
| Cipher Digital: $850M convertible notes offering; data-hall delivery dates amended | Oct 13, 2026 | SEC filing | Cipher 8-K |
| Nebius: $3.5B senior secured facility, 364-day maturity | Oct 22, 2026 | Company release | Nebius |
| Federal Reserve raises its policy rate to 3.75%–4.00% | Sep 16, 2026 | Official decision | Federal Reserve |
| Federal Reserve holds its policy rate at 3.75%–4.00% (10–2 vote) | Oct 28, 2026 | Official decision | Federal Reserve |
| Eight of the group report the quarter to September 30; no lost customer or missed payment in the releases | Oct 27–Nov 10, 2026 | Company releases | Company 8-Ks |

## Which explanations are proposed but not proven?

Four explanations circulate. Each is plausible; none is proven by the data, and two are partly contradicted by it. Labels: “supported” means the timing and the cross-section fit; “partly” means some evidence points the other way; “not shown” means nothing new was disclosed in October.

| Proposed explanation | Evidence for | Evidence against or missing | Label (ours) |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Debt and refinancing risk: lenders want more to fund borrowed growth | CoreWeave’s 2032 notes closed at a new high yield the day before its largest drop (investor chart reported by CNBC; 14.8% on October 14); the most indebted large name led the October 14 fall; most October company statements were about financing | Nebius, with $8.04B of cash against $8.55B of debt at June 30, fell almost as much (−32.7%); the whole group sold off together | Supported, as the main documented channel |
| Rising interest rates | The Fed raised its policy rate on September 16; the 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.75% (Aug 31) to 5.29% (Sep 30); CPI on October 14 was hot | In October the 10-year yield fell to 5.00% (Oct 23) and long-term Treasury prices rose, while the stocks fell | Partly: explains the high level of borrowing costs, not the October timing |
| GPU depreciation and obsolescence | Gartner’s October 14 release said over $3.5T of AI infrastructure spending could be exposed to impairment by 2030 | No company changed a GPU useful life or booked a new AI-hardware write-down in October | Not shown in October; a long-running debate |
| Customer concentration | Revenue depends on a few buyers (CoreWeave’s top three were 72% of Q2 2026 revenue) | No customer loss was announced; executives said demand was unchanged | Not shown in October |

One more reading fits the data and is often missed: much of the fall started before October. On September 30 Applied Digital was already 50.9% below its 12-month closing high, TeraWulf 48.9%, IREN 46.5%, Cipher 45.8% and Core Scientific 45.2%, most of them from peaks in May and June 2026. October was the third leg of a decline, not the first. For the debate behind the depreciation row, see [how long AI GPUs last](https://www.exent.ai/resources/gpu-depreciation-debate); for concentration, see [who are CoreWeave’s customers](https://www.exent.ai/resources/who-are-coreweaves-customers).

## Did rising interest rates cause the neocloud selloff?

Treasury yields fell over this window, weakening a simple rising-yield explanation; that does not identify what caused the stock declines. The rise in yields came earlier, in September, around the Fed’s increase and before the stocks broke. Daily par yields from the US Treasury:

| Date (2026) | 2-year Treasury | 10-year Treasury | What else happened |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Aug 31 | 4.34% | 4.75% |  |
| Sep 16 | 4.74% | 5.01% | Fed raises its policy rate to 3.75%–4.00% (held on Oct 28) |
| Sep 30 | 4.88% | 5.29% | Neocloud stocks near their October starting point |
| Oct 14 | 4.82% | 5.19% | CPI report; CoreWeave −15.5% |
| Oct 23 | 4.69% | 5.00% | Neocloud stocks at or near their October lows |
| Nov 5 | 4.46% | 4.84% | S&P 500 −4.36%; CoreWeave −9.8%; yields lower again |

Interpretation (ours): the rate level matters for companies that must keep borrowing, because new debt is priced off it, and a 10-year yield around 5% is high by recent standards. But a rate story alone would have hit long-duration Treasuries too, and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) rose 4.6% from September 30 to October 23 and another 0.7% to November 5 (closing prices, same data as the table above). The October move looks more like a repricing of these companies’ own credit than of interest rates in general. For how rate changes reach a whole portfolio, see portfolio rate sensitivity and [Treasury yields](https://www.exent.ai/learn/treasury-yields).

## When is this account wrong, and who should not read too much into it?

Counterexample: a selloff driven by financing fears can reverse quickly if financing arrives on acceptable terms, or deepen if a report shows slower delivery. The same data fit both a temporary repricing and the start of a longer one; five weeks of prices cannot tell them apart. Large falls in this group are not new either: in the year to September 30, 2026, CoreWeave’s largest peak-to-trough fall in daily closes was 57.5% and Cipher’s 51.4% (Exent market data, same daily-close series as the table above; every name is in [neocloud stocks compared](https://www.exent.ai/compare/neocloud-stocks-compared)).

Who should not use this page to act: anyone looking for a signal to buy a dip or to sell. The page explains the record; it does not estimate the chance of a rebound or of a default.

The big tech reports this page was waiting for are now dated outcomes, and they did not settle it. Microsoft and Alphabet reported on October 28 and Amazon on October 29. On the next session Microsoft moved −0.16% and Alphabet −12.64% (SPY −0.38%), its worst day since its 2004 listing, and Amazon −1.41% (SPY −1.77%). Quarterly spending on property and equipment roughly doubled at all three: Microsoft $39.4 billion vs $19.4 billion a year earlier, Alphabet $51.4 billion vs $24.0 billion, Amazon $77.3 billion vs $35.1 billion. The neoclouds still fell on those two sessions (CoreWeave −5.0% and −9.7%). The record is in [how big tech stocks move after earnings](https://www.exent.ai/resources/how-big-tech-stocks-move-after-earnings) and [mega-cap stocks after their worst day](https://www.exent.ai/resources/mega-cap-stocks-after-worst-day); the spending plans are tracked in [big tech AI spending in 2026](https://www.exent.ai/resources/big-tech-ai-spending-2026).

What would change the picture from here, with dates: the market’s first full session after CoreWeave’s report on November 11, Nebius’s Q3 report on November 12, NVIDIA’s results on November 17 and the next Federal Reserve meeting on December 8–9, after it held its policy rate at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28.

- Limitations: prices are daily closes to November 5, 2026 (to November 10 in the Q3 section), and the main table stops at October 23; the October 25–26 row is quoted from a news report and is intraday.
- Bond yields and CDS levels are press-reported market prices on the dates shown, not Exent data; they change daily.
- Company financials are unaudited and labeled by quarter: to September 30, 2026 for the eight that reported by November 10, to August 31 for Applied Digital, and to June 30 for Nebius until it reports. Q3 stock moves use closes to November 10, 2026.
- The causes table separates documented events from explanations; the labels in the last column are our judgment, not a finding.
- Nothing here is a forecast, a default probability or a recommendation on any stock or bond.

## Add market context with Exent Market intel

Market intel provides market context, cross-asset analysis, an events calendar and regular written notes. These can inform your review of an existing plan; they do not reliably predict crashes or guarantee better outcomes.

1. An events calendar with Fed meetings, CPI releases and earnings dates, so the dates listed above are in one place.
2. Regular written notes that read cross-asset ratios such as stocks vs bonds and high-beta vs low-volatility stocks, the risk-appetite backdrop these stocks are most exposed to.
3. A reading of US market risk (Risk ON, Neutral or Risk OFF) built on four pillars, including credit stress, with an email when the reading changes.

Exent is our product: [Exent Market intel](https://www.exent.ai/intel)

## Frequently asked questions

### Why are neocloud stocks down in October 2026?

The documented trigger is credit: CoreWeave’s bonds fell to prices yielding about 15–16% and its five-year CDS passed 1,000 basis points in mid-October, and the whole group sold off with it. From Sep 30 to Oct 23 CoreWeave fell 37.7%, Nebius 32.7% and IREN 39.1% (Exent market data). To the Nov 5 close they were down 49.9%, 49.0% and 55.9% from Sep 30, after a broad market drop that day.

### Have neocloud stocks kept falling since October 23, 2026?

Most have. From the Oct 23 close to the Nov 5 close CoreWeave fell 19.5%, Nebius 24.2% and IREN 27.6%, against 3.5% for SPY and 8.1% for QQQ; Riot rose 17.8%. On Nov 5 alone the S&P 500 fell 4.36% and the Nasdaq-100 6.36% (Exent market data).

### How did CoreWeave’s Q3 2026 earnings go?

CoreWeave reported on Nov 10, 2026 after the close: revenue $3.66 billion, up 168% from a year earlier, operating income $207 million, net interest expense $846 million and a net loss of $709 million. Revenue backlog was about $132.5 billion (about $104 billion at Jun 30), and it guided 2026 capital spending to $37–39 billion. The stock closed at $48.73 on Nov 10, before the release; the Nov 11 reaction was not known when this page was updated.

### Have Nebius, TeraWulf and IREN reported third-quarter 2026 results?

TeraWulf and IREN have; Nebius reports Nov 12, 2026 before the open. TeraWulf’s revenue was $76.2 million, up 51% from a year earlier, and the stock rose 12.8% on Nov 6; IREN’s was $228 million, down 5%, and the stock rose 20.0% the same day (Exent market data).

### Why did CoreWeave stock drop 15% on October 14, 2026?

No single cause was announced. That morning brought a hot September CPI report (+0.6% for the month) and a Gartner forecast about neoclouds, and CoreWeave’s 2032 notes had closed at a new high yield the day before, according to an investor’s chart reported by CNBC. The stock closed at $65.78, down 15.5%.

### How much did Nebius fall in October 2026?

Nebius closed at $158.74 on Oct 23, down 32.7% from $235.88 on Sep 30 and 36.5% below its Oct 6 close of $249.87. It was still up 89.6% for 2026, from $83.71 on December 31, 2025. By the Nov 5 close it was $120.37, down 49.0% from Sep 30 and up 43.8% for 2026 (Exent market data).

### Did bitcoin miner stocks fall too?

Yes. The miners that lease data centers to AI companies fell between 18.0% (Core Scientific) and 49.8% (Cipher Digital) from Sep 30 to Oct 23, 2026; Riot fell 37.8%, Galaxy 35.4% and Hut 8 28.9%. To Nov 5 six of the seven fell further; Riot rose 17.8% from Oct 23, and on Nov 4 reported a 15-year, 910 MW lease worth about $28 billion.

### Did Nvidia fall with the neoclouds?

Much less. NVIDIA fell 7.6% from Sep 30 to Oct 23, 2026, and the Nasdaq-100 ETF 4.8%, against 32.7%–39.1% for the three listed GPU clouds. By Nov 5 NVIDIA was down 20.5% from Sep 30, including 9.3% that day; it reports on Nov 17.

### Were rising interest rates the cause?

Only partly. The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.75% on Aug 31 to 5.29% on Sep 30, around the Fed’s September 16 increase, but it fell to 5.00% by Oct 23 and 4.84% by Nov 5 while the stocks fell. High borrowing costs are the backdrop; the October timing lines up more closely with the companies’ own credit.

### What did Gartner say about neoclouds?

On Oct 14, 2026 Gartner said over 80% of neocloud providers will cease independent operations by 2030, which includes being acquired, and that over $3.5 trillion of AI infrastructure spending could be exposed to impairment. It is a forecast, not a bankruptcy count.

### What did Elon Musk say about neoclouds?

On Oct 25, 2026 he posted on X that “200+ neoclouds” face death and consolidation because debt markets have closed to companies without revenue outside AI data centers. CNBC noted that his SpaceX sells computing capacity, so it competes with them.

### Is the neocloud selloff over?

No one can know. As of the Nov 5 close most of these stocks were lower than on Oct 23. The Fed held its policy rate on Oct 28, 2026. Big tech has reported: after results on Oct 28 Microsoft moved −0.16% and Alphabet −12.64% the next session, and after Oct 29 results Amazon moved −1.41%, with quarterly capital spending about double a year earlier at all three. CoreWeave reported Q3 after the Nov 10 close; still to come: Nebius on Nov 12 and NVIDIA on Nov 17.

## Sources

1. [Consumer Price Index – September 2026 (USDL-26-1574)](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm) — US Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2026-10-14
2. [Daily Treasury par yield rates, 2026 (interest rate statistics)](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026) — US Department of the Treasury, 2026-11-05
3. [Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm) — Federal Reserve, 2026-09-16
4. [Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm) — Federal Reserve, 2026-10-28
5. [Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/000176962826000366/crwv-20260630.htm) — CoreWeave (SEC), 2026-08-11
6. [Project Compass investor presentation (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819989/000119312526419743/d134900dex991.htm) — Cipher Digital (SEC), 2026-10-13
7. [Nebius secures $3.5 billion financing facility with Citi](https://nebius.com/newsroom/nebius-secures-3-5-billion-financing-facility-with-citi) — Nebius Group, 2026-10-22
8. [Letter to shareholders, Q2 2026 (Form 6-K, Exhibit 99.2)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926094568/tm2622968d1_ex99-2.htm) — Nebius Group (SEC), 2026-08-12
9. [Gartner Says Over $3.5 Trillion of AI Infrastructure Spending Could Be Exposed to Impairment by the End of 2030](https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2026-10-14-gartner-says-over-us-dollars-three-and-a-half-trillion-of-artificial-intelligence-infrastructure-spending-could-be-exposed-to-impairment-by-the-end-of-2030) — Gartner, 2026-10-14
10. [Nvidia-backed Aussie AI firm Firmus withdraws historic IPO, citing market volatility](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/09/nvidia-ai-firmus-ipo-.html) — CNBC, 2026-10-08
11. [CoreWeave shares tumble as bond yields near 15% on concern about AI borrowing binge](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/14/coreweave-stock-bond-yields-ai-debt.html) — CNBC, 2026-10-14
12. [CoreWeave credit default swaps hit distress levels as investors sour on AI debt](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/15/coreweave-credit-default-swaps-hit-distress-levels-as-investors-sour-on-ai-debt.html) — CNBC, 2026-10-15
13. [Stock investors are ready to move on from the AI rout. Credit investors are not](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/19/coreweave-oracle-ai-credit-stress.html) — CNBC, 2026-10-19
14. [CoreWeave’s market confidence erodes as bond yields spike and stock sinks](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/21/coreweaves-market-confidence-erodes-as-bond-yields-spike-stock-sinks.html) — CNBC, 2026-10-21
15. [Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says neocloud demand is ‘off the charts’ but capital is scarce](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/22/nvidia-jensen-huang-neocloud-demand-capital.html) — CNBC, 2026-10-22
16. [Galaxy Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1859392/000185939226000108/glxy-20260930xpressrelease.htm) — Galaxy Digital (SEC), 2026-10-27
17. [Cipher Digital Provides Third Quarter 2026 Business Update (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819989/000181998926000047/exh991-q326_earningsxprxvf.htm) — Cipher Digital (SEC), 2026-11-02
18. [Riot Platforms Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Strategic Highlights (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1167419/000110465926122368/riot-ex99d1.htm) — Riot Platforms (SEC), 2026-11-04
19. [Hut 8 Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1964789/000110465926122347/tm2628741d1_ex99-1.htm) — Hut 8 (SEC), 2026-11-04
20. [Core Scientific Announces Third Quarter 2026 Results (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1839341/000183934126000028/q32026corescientificinc-ea.htm) — Core Scientific (SEC), 2026-11-05
21. [IREN Reports Q1 FY27 Results (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1878848/000187884826000065/irenreportsq1-fy27result.htm) — IREN (SEC), 2026-11-05
22. [Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1878848/000187884826000066/iren-20260930.htm) — IREN (SEC), 2026-11-05
23. [CoreWeave Reports Strong Third Quarter 2026 Results (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/000176962826000461/coreweave3q26earningspress.htm) — CoreWeave (SEC), 2026-11-10
24. [TeraWulf Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1083301/000162828026071306/a_wulfearningsreleaseq32026.htm) — TeraWulf (SEC), 2026-11-06
25. [Third quarter 2026 investor presentation (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.2)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1083301/000162828026071306/terawulfq32026investorpr.htm) — TeraWulf (SEC), 2026-11-06
26. [Applied Digital Reports Fiscal First Quarter 2027 Results (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1144879/000114487926000057/apldq127earningsrelease.htm) — Applied Digital (SEC), 2026-10-07
27. [Form 8-K: Justified campus credit support agreements](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1083301/000162828026069810/wulf-20261104.htm) — TeraWulf (SEC), 2026-11-04
28. [TeraWulf Schedules Conference Call for Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results](https://investors.terawulf.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/147/terawulf-schedules-conference-call-for-third-quarter-2026-financial-results) — TeraWulf, 2026-10-12
29. [CoreWeave Announces Date of Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Conference Call](https://investors.coreweave.com/news/news-details/2026/CoreWeave-Announces-Date-of-Third-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx) — CoreWeave, 2026-10-27
30. [Nebius Group announces date of third quarter 2026 results and conference call](https://nebius.com/newsroom/nebius-group-announces-date-of-third-quarter-2026-results-and-conference-call) — Nebius Group, 2026-10-30
31. [NVIDIA Sets Conference Call for Third-Quarter Financial Results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-sets-conference-call-for-third-quarter-financial-results-6928873) — NVIDIA, 2026-10-28
32. [Earnings release, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026 (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436122/msft-ex99_1.htm) — Microsoft (SEC), 2026-10-28
33. [Alphabet Announces Third Quarter 2026 Results (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000080/googexhibit991q32026.htm) — Alphabet (SEC), 2026-10-28
34. [Earnings release, quarter ended Sep 30, 2026 (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000038/amzn-20260930xex991.htm) — Amazon (SEC), 2026-10-29
35. [Hyperscalers and Apple surge after election results remove investor uncertainty](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/04/apple-and-other-big-tech-stocks-surge-after-2026-midterm-elections.html) — CNBC, 2026-11-04
36. [AI meltdown: Nvidia and Qualcomm drop more than 9%, pushing Nasdaq to worst day since April 2025](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/05/qualcomm-earnings-chip-stocks-election.html) — CNBC, 2026-11-05
37. [Neocloud stocks fall as Elon Musk says more than 200 of them face ‘guppy-level death’](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/26/neocloud-stocks-today-coreweave-nebius-iren-elon-musk.html) — CNBC, 2026-10-26

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Educational content, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.